By Bisi Ojediran

I imagine how US President Barack Obama would have felt if he tried putting in a call to Nigerian authorities on hearing the news of Farouk Abdulmutallab’s attempt to detonate explosives on Delta Northwest Airlines Flight 253 with 278 passengers and crew aboard. That is if he had not expected a call from Nigeria, as he would have from another country in that situation. “President Umaru Yar’ Adua has been away in a Saudi hospital for over 30 days,” he would have been reminded. “And the Vice President Goodluck Jonathan can be of no immediate help because he is not in charge.

” “What a……” Obama would have been tempted to say (I don’t know him to use swear words). But certainly he would have been shocked about the current status of Nigeria, which in White House confidential records is one of the pillars for the emancipation of the impoverished and poorly governed African continent. That is how Nigerians are ending the year. No effective leader! Farouk Abdulmutallab is a Nigerian! And a silver-spoon son of a highly placed Nigerian for that matter! No matter how well his background is rationalized, no matter how strong the defence mechanism, he is a Nigerian who has thrown air travel around the world into chaos with untold hardship for travellers, now subjected to body search.

The introduction of a 3D scan that strips travellers naked on the security screen is now likely, in spite of the heavy criticism against its use. For all agonizing travellers now, Nigeria, a country notorious for scam and corruption has added to its pain stimuli. The country is ending the year on a bad note in international relations, caused principally by poor representation or absence at important international fora. Now, Farouk has caused another coating of tar on Nigeria’s international image. And bad time awaits Nigerian travellers. Extra attention is normally applied to passengers arriving from Nigeria at busy airports around the globe because of concerns over fraud and smuggling. Now, it is going to get worse. For President Obama, he is gradually confirming my fears that his relatively soft stance with terrorists may cost the US another attack that will not only make his name a hate word, but also ruin his presidency. But that is a subject of another Tolling Bells piece.

Farouk’s father reported him to US authorities and according to reports a file was opened on Farouk, but as one official said, “one part of the system that absolutely failed” was that Abdulmutallab was able to board a plane to the United States allegedly with PETN. Well, it emerged yesterday that Farouk had been barred from entering the UK. With a bruised image and limping on the global scene, Nigerians would have been compensated if they are better off at home during a year that will end in three days. Are we better off in 2009? Well, the Vice President may have provided an answer in Abuja over the weekend when he spoke after a Christmas thanksgiving service.

He said Farouk has compounded the country’s challenges of fuel scarcity, kidnapping, weak economy and poor state of infrastructure, among others. I like that honest talk! To have said otherwise would have been a negation of the socio-economic rights of the majority of Nigerians who have been impoverished during the year. In the books, the economy, with and overall real GDP growth averaged about 6 per cent during the first half of 2009, a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) preliminary estimate of a real GDP growth rate of 7.6 percent during the third quarter of 2009, and a decline of year-on-year headline inflation, looks good. But that is yet to translate into better living standards.

The true measure of a good economy is the wellbeing of the average citizen or family. Has the individual or family experienced improvement in living standards – better access to social amenities like water, health, education and power supply? Has the quality or even quantity of food on the dining table increased? And have there been improved opportunities to earn a living? Well, with about 70 per cent of Nigerians in the poverty bracket, and with a high level of unemployment, the answer is obvious. Of course, with a raging global economic crisis and a depressed crude oil market, Nigeria started the year on a bad note. Revenue from both oil and non-oil sources were below projections for the first half of 2009, and the aggregate revenue available for distribution to the three tiers of government fell short of projected estimate by about 26 per cent. But that can hardly be a justification for the bitterness of many Nigerians during the year.

Any suggestion that the country fared better will shock many Nigerians who have been denied basic necessities of life, even at this festive period. For a major oil producing country with at least three refineries to deny its citizens fuel during this period is crass insensitivity. And to be insulted that the scarcity of petrol was caused by saboteurs, and not government, when an apology should have been made to Nigerians, is gross disrespect of our socio-economic rights. When did it become the lot of the governed to fight economic saboteurs or fuel subsidy racketeers? Many Nigerians know that the lingering fuel scarcity originated from the poor handling of the planned deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. With high prices of goods and services caused by the fuel scarcity and the hardship encountered in the sourcing of fuel by consumers, this festive season could have been better celebrated.

Reports of some lawmakers’ refusal to travel home for the fear of kidnapping should be funny, but it is depressing. Security, one of the key deliverables people look up to government for has also become a major challenge in the country. Security is a deliverable on government’s Seven –Point Agenda. So also is improved electricity supply, over which Nigerians perhaps feel the greatest disappointment. This is because not only was a promise made, huge sums of money was voted on a regular basis for it, and even when facts on the ground called for caution, those in charge boasted they could make it happen. A prominent minister from the South was so sure about it that he boasted it would be achieved during the year to turn the economy around. But as time wore on towards the deadline, and reality dawned, a defence mechanism started to be built. The high drama of it all was during the defence of her 2010 budget at the National Assembly.

A power outage had triggered calls of “6000 Mega Watts” and a question on the December deadline to which Information Minister Dora Akunyili responded, “I am not the minister of power.” Well, many Nigerians spent Xmas in darkness, as they have been in most of the year. That of course is not better life. Without electricity, there is not much the manufacturing sector can do. Investors in the sector are quick to say it is dead. May be not yet, but many companies, including vital ones like tyre companies, have closed shop. Survivors are bracing it but with worsening cost of production because they have to provide their own infrastructure, they say it is tough. Perhaps, the capital market is one area where the pain of Nigerians can be rationalised. The stock market crashed as did all other stock markets around the world. Many Nigerians, including former governor Chief Segun Osoba and the Oba of Lagos have lost millions. So have smaller investors.

But hope that the market would take a cue from recovering markets has been dashed. Return on Investment during the year declined by 65 per cent from the N280 billion paid out in 2008. The story of the money market is interesting. The other day, a worried investor said with so much money stolen by bank executives and the heavy losses declared by banks, Nigerians would have woken up one morning to discover that there are no banks in the country anymore. An exaggerated joke, but certainly the new CBN Governor Lamido Sanusi, has stemmed a dangerous trend and hopefully, sanity will be restored in the banking halls; hopefully the stock market which the reforms further shrank will recover; and hopefully the credit crunch will ease to get the economy growing again.

The judiciary has fared well, but not so the National Assembly, which is still on an ego trip. For example, there is no reason for the constitutional review process should be duplicated. People are also not comfortable with the many vital bills waiting to be passed. However, it is fair to say with the Amnesty in the Niger Delta, which has restored relative peace in the area, and the civil service reforms, President Yar’ Adua was doing a good home run for the year before he broke down. Governance has also improved in the states. I counted 12 with a high performing governor from a southern state last week, but with so much power and resources at the centre, poor performance at that level, easily rubs off on the nation. Although some ministries have done well, our concern is the over all well being of the people. From there, hope is fading. When hope fades, it makes space for depression. But depression is horrible in part because it cuts you off from your future or, more precisely, your sense of the future. The bleakness of the present is so oppressive just because you can’t imagine an alternative for tomorrow.

By Bisi Ojediran

Be it IBB’s “stepping aside”, OBJ’s Third-Term attempt, Yar’ Adua’s health, Mamadou Tandja of Niger Republic’s tenure elongation, the decision to stay or leave is never an easy one. The scenarios are the same in the Third World. While some get under pressure to leave, others come under pressure to defy all odds to stay on. Easy perhaps, if it is one man’s decision or if it involves no collateral damage. In very many cases, a major problem is the President’s men.

I learnt about many cases during my research for a book on tenure elongation across Africa. Isolation in the name of protection and paranoia are some of the popular ways of controlling the President, but the forces behind the critical issue of leaving or continuing in power could get really scary. I have tried to string some of the arguments, usually bizarre, in a faction here:

From the outside of the high-rise, only the dim hallway security lights were visible unless you looked really close at the third floor of the four-storey security block. A tiny office at the corner of that floor was illuminated by a small overhead illusory light. This was very unusual meeting considering it was a little past 4:00 AM.

All six of them had been invited an hour before by a former military General believed to be one of the President’s fiercest loyalists who knew the secrets of all the President’s men.

Sim, had gained enormous wealth and power representing the interests of big politicians. From the days of the military governments, he had survived the many changes in government to remain ensconced in that nation’s corridors of power.

That had earned him juicy contracts, through which he’d built up the foreign reserves of his benefactors. In turn, their collective guilt and gratitude insulated him from the negative effects of whatever power games his sponsors played.

For a man who had the power to pull down the house on his benefactors, he also knew there was only one way to silence or punish him: Death! So in addition to ensuring he was trusted by the President, he was very careful of others.

For this meeting he made all six people to swear to an oath before entering the meeting room where only distorted shapes of people could be seen in the red illusory light. After the oath, each person had been assigned a number, and was to be called by that number only. They were three key ministers, a top security operative, chief strategy adviser and a member of the President’s family. They used microphones which had the effect of distorting their voices to make identification impossible.

“I am Five,” the meeting opened. “I had thought that in his current state of shock, the President would be convinced some people want him out of power for selfish reasons.”

“Hmm!” a heavy chorus interrupted him.

“ I followed that with the argument of how his achievements will be rubbished and the loss his departure will cost the country. I have argued my points strongly to him and I believe others here have.”

“Yes, I did. I’m One.” Sim made sure he attended the meeting, and from where he sat in the adjoining office monitoring, he was sure One would speak his mind. He was one of the masterminds of the agenda to convince the President to stay on.

This early morning, he chewed a kola nut to stay alert. “I have told him to ignore the noise of the opposition in the media and rather to listen to the silent voices of the majority of the people who love his sincerity and his fear of God.”

“That was a good one,” someone said, drawing sighs from some others.

One continued: “I have told him that although some foreign countries want him to leave at the end of his tenure or even before then, there are others who want him to stay on for the country to realise the full potentials of its mineral resources….”

A shrilling laughter cut in, and then, “don’t mind the Americans. Is Egypt not their ally? Do they think the system of government there is a democracy?” Someone said, “Please continue,” he added.

“Thank you,” One took over. “You see, he seemed to agree with me when I said his administration has moved the country forward in ways that were considered unthinkable. He also agreed that although presidents seem to get elected properly, they afterwards act like they’ve been awarded the job. It happens quite too often around the world.”

“I’m Three,” another muffled voice took over. “I came off with a different view when I spoke with Mr. President. He seems determined to leave as soon as possible. He told me he is not as vibrant as before and anybody wishing him to stay longer than necessary may be wasting his or her time. On that night he looked tired.”

“Liar!” An angry participant shouted.

“Let’s keep our calm, gentlemen,” someone said after a loud silence. “Three, please continue.”

“Thanks,” Three resumed his contribution. “We all know the President is a very principled man. He said he is aware that there are committees and ministries in the administration that are in the middle of some important projects. That, he knows they are concerned they will be unable to complete those tasks before a new president takes office.”

“Of course, everyone knows that every new president will bring in as many of his own people as possible. The next leader will not want any leftover, even if they are at the peak of their performance. Sorry, I didn’t introduce myself. I am Two.”

He paused and continued. “They talk about continuity in government, but practically, a new man means that we are all out of the power equation. The realignment of forces means that we become ordinary members of the country, and the truth is that I don’t know anybody here who has made enough money to live on forever.”

A heavy silence fell on the meeting.

There was a disgruntled sigh then someone spoke, “and of course, there are people here who have their eyes on higher political office. All that dream will die prematurely.”

“This is Three. The last speaker did not identify his number, but let me finish what I was saying. I was reminding us of my impression that deep inside him, the President has the country at heart. He said he has planted the vegetables and once he is gone, a new farmer will have to tend the garden.”

Sim, had been anxious to hear from the President’s cousin, who was sure to speak for the President’s wife. He spoke at last: “I’m Six. Gentlemen, of course we all understand why we want the President to continue. It may be of selfish interest but that is the practical thing everybody will wish…”

“That is very correct, I’m Two. We have to be realistic.”

“Thank you,” Six continued. “As concerned family members, some of us, and I must add that it is not all of us, some of us have been prevailing on him to stay, but he is a very stubborn man, you know? He keeps his key decisions quiet and once they have been made, nobody changes his mind.”

He stopped at the shuffling of feet of some nervous participants and continued. “The way we handle him is that once we suspect he has an unfavourable decision, we don’t give him the opportunity to verbalise it,” he paused to swallow.

“The truth is that you people in government surprise me. If you need the President this much, by now you should have built a strong and loud army of sycophants and praise singers all over the place. And his information and communication people should be feeding the media and the public with why he wants to stay on to finish his programmes. Stuffs like that.”

Four spoke at last to the delight of Sim: “I’m Four. I agree with the last speaker. We also told him we have security reports on the extravagant lifestyles and sinister motives of the people who would possibly succeed him and I think he is beginning to understand that all his achievements would be squandered within months of his vacation from office. He has also been made to believe why some people want him dead and all that seems to scare him. He was beginning to worry that the country will be in flames by the time he leaves…”

“Aha!” Someone said in satisfaction. “I think we should continue along that line, pumping fear into him and making him feel larger than life. If he loves the country as someone said, then he should be concerned that his departure will set the country on fire. Sorry, I’m Two,” he apologised for not identifying himself.

“Yea,” the others chorused.

But Three held a different view. He said, “gentlemen let’s not waste our time. We may not be opportune to see all the pressure and pain he is going through, but if you ask me, the President will leave at the next opportunity….”

“Shut up!”, “Nonsense!”, “Idiot!” a hail of insults and banging of the table drowned him.

Suddenly, a voice came on the speaker, “gentlemen the popular position is that we continue to try until Mr. President speaks for himself. For now Four, as the most senior person, will implement all the action items.” That was Sim.

by Bisi Ojediran

Nigerians seem to have borrowed the policy of the monkey in their expectations from annual budgets of the Federal Government. “Seeing is believing” is in fact so strong in the monkey kingdom that it is the origin of the proverb “the talisman of the monkey is its eyes.”

Year after year, Nigerians a regaled with promises of socio-economic development and better life that are only partially or never fulfilled. The gradual loss of interest in budgets by many Nigerians is therefore a natural development. It gets worse on the ironies in the budget: Some people, who are favoured by budgetary votes, tend to be the same people to sabotage it.

It is why although the N4.07 trillion 2010 budget makes glowing promises and even assurances, some people are not moved. Under normal circumstances, the following assurance by government should provide a high dose of relief: “We remain committed to transforming the socio-economic fortunes of our people by implementing a strategic plan for stimulating economic growth and launching the nation onto a trajectory of sustained development that will propel Nigeria to the top twenty economies in the world by the year 2020.”

But no, in the present atmosphere of fading hope, this is looking like a hard sell.

However, if the budget I describe as focused is viewed from the following perspective, it could be a more convincing document of intentions. I will acknowledge some of the challenges here, but strip all the grammar and political jargons and you have a budget to pay salaries and debts, and to resuscitate collapsed national infrastructure.

That is why I am attracted to this section of the document: “Accordingly, the 2010 Budget provides about 90 per cent of MDAs’ capital expenditure to five key priority sectors, namely Critical Infrastructure; Human Capital Development; Land Reform and Food Security; Physical Security, Law and Order; and the Niger Delta. Priority has also been given to key initiatives that would further bridge critical infrastructural gaps to reduce the cost of doing business in Nigeria….”

Although these sectors could use more funds, I am of the strong view that if concerns for infrastructure development translate into their speedy rehabilitation, the multiplier effects will be felt by all other sectors. This will be reflected in national productivity and employment. And hopefully the growth targets would be achieved.

In addition to the above, other priority areas should be a sound banking industry to ease credit flow to fuel the economy, macro-economic stability and the speedy recovery of the stock market.

Functional infrastructure (electricity supply and transportation), easy access to credit and a virile stock market would be low-hanging fruits or deliverables to ease the pain in the land and make Nigerians believe again in government. Not all that 2010 mumbo–jumbo. No, not now. Let’s see improvement in our living standards first.

Luckily, the economic outlook of 2010 painted by the Ministry of Finance contains some of these essential deliverables. It says among other things that “the macroeconomic environment is expected to further gain additional momentum and there will be enhanced real GDP growth performance in view of on-going and envisaged sectoral reforms.

“The stock market has shown some recovery and this is expected to be sustained (by the implementation of reforms designed to improve effectiveness of market regulation, oversight and supervision as well as corporate governance)

“The value of naira is expected to continue to stabilize, as oil prices continue to recover and investors return to the Nigerian economy, and the moderation in inflation is expected to be sustained…”

But, sadly the ironies in the budget could kill its dreams: A nation in desperate need of growth does not show much seriousness if it allocates about 50 per cent of total spending to recurrent expenditure with only 33.5 per cent to capital expenditure. With the politics of 2011 in the air, there are even fears that spending may not be done according to plan.

It is also distressing that the National Assembly is to spend N127.7 billion during the year. The N26 billion voted for travelling by legislators is insensitive to national growth aspirations. And yet, it is the body that nearly stalled the presentation of the budget, even if they were manipulated as it is being speculated. It is hoped that this time they would not shout for funding of constitutional projects after the hidden emergency declared in the budget for resuscitating national infrastructure. I share the view of former Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Chief Emeka Anyaoku that governance should be made less expensive to free resources for national economic growth.

Also, a large component of the recurrent expenditure is meant for the payment of civil servants and their political bosses. These are people who have secured jobs inspite of the economic downturn. They are people whose offices are lit by generators purchased from the same budget. Ironically, they are the people who are unanimously blamed for the poor budget implementation of the budget. Out of the N785.4 billion voted for capital projects in the 2008 budget, only 22.71 per cent was spent. From a low level of about 20 per cent in the first quarter of this year, utilisation was about 50 per cent as at the end of October.

Challenges, ironies and all, one thing is clear: Nigerians want to see results. Let’s go for the low-hanging fruits now.

Tiger Woods and Other Stories

I have come to respect TMZ.com, a celebrity publication, for its accuracy in reporting, especially the Michael Jackson death stories. So when it linked Tiger Woods’ automobile accident near his house to marital problems, I developed more than a passing interest in it. Another global model was about to fall.

Although Tiger and Rachel Uchitel, a New York nightclub hostess, were trying to kill rumours of their relationship, I suspected the story would not end there.

In my view, sports stars with virility fired by high testosterone and always in dire need of unusual relaxation from high concentration tend to be easy targets of temptation at fun spots.

I therefore did not doubt it when news broke that Tiger has had a 31-month-long affair with a 21-year-old cocktail waitress, Jaimee Grubbs. Grubbs had photos, racy messages and a Nov. 24 voicemail allegedly from Woods, in which he suggests his wife, Elin Nordegren, may know about the alleged affair. Grubbs told a magazine she met Woods at a Las Vegas nightclub the week after the 2007 Masters—two months before Woods’ wife, Elin, gave birth to their first child.

There was no denying all that. Tiger promptly confessed and apologised to his family. But he may have put his billion-dollar brand in jeopardy. His reputation has also taken a massive hit, but most painful is his crippling inability to play the role model he once was to many golf lovers and youths around the world.

The squeaky clean Tiger Woods in the popular Accenture adverts has now been tarred. And with reports that Elin is receiving some heavy payouts to stay in the marriage, there could be more secrets. Reports yesterday added Mindy Lawton a Florida cocktail waitress, two women in Britain, and a Cori Rist to the list. Another model has obviously bitten the dust by the power of sex.

But Tiger is not the only athlete to be tarred by sexual scandals. Below are some other confirmed cases from internet sources:

Michael Jordan: On July 21, 2006, a Cook County, Illinois judge determined that former Chicago Bulls guard Michael Jordan did not owe his alleged former lover Karla Knafel $5 million. Jordan had allegedly paid Knafel $250,000 to keep their relationship a secret.

David Beckham: In 2004, personal assistant Rebecca Loos reportedly said that an affair with soccer star David Beckham left her “breathless” and “very happy.” Sarah Marbeck, a model who also claimed an affair with Beckham, was described in The Sun as “a high-class hooker.”

Steve McNair: Steve McNair, a Tennessee Titans quarterback on Oct. 16, 2000, was found dead July 4, 2009, with multiple gunshot wounds. Police said a pistol was discovered near the body of 20-year-old Sahel Kazemi, also shot dead in the Nashville condominium. Police have concluded that the married father of four died at the hands of his girlfriend in a murder-suicide double-shooting.

Rick Pitino: The Louisville basketball coach made a public apology concerning his involvement in a scandal after news broke that he told police he and Karen Sypher had sex on a table at a Louisville restaurant six years ago.

Steve Phillips: ESPN baseball analyst Steve Phillips admitted on Oct. 21, 2009, to having an affair with an assistant at the cable network who reportedly taunted his wife with phone calls. Phillips was later fired by the network.

Marv Albert: TV and radio sportscaster Marv Albert became the focus of media frenzy in 1997, when he went on trial for felony charges of forcible sodomy.

Patrick Ewing: New York Knicks center testified in 2001 that he had sex with two dancers at Atlanta’s Gold Club, one of the city’s most prominent strip clubs, bringing in millions of dollars a year and attracting athletes, celebrities and other wealthy patrons.

Denny Neagle: Colorado Rockies pitcher Denny Neagle was found engaged with a prostitute and three days later caught speeding while drunk. The incident was a public humiliation for Neagle and ended his marriage.