Is Haiti still habitable?

By Luke Onyekakeyah

THE catastrophic 7.0 magnitude earthquake that ravaged Haiti on January 12, 2010 has brought to the fore concerns about the continued habitation of people on the dangerous Haitian tip of the Hispaniola Island in the Caribbean Sea. Though, two countries share the Island, namely: Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Haitian part appears to be more exposed and most vulnerable. That explains why Haitians regularly nurse wounds suffered from one natural disaster or the other. And, of course, that largely explains why the country is the poorest in the Western Hemisphere.

How can Haiti be rich when almost on annual basis one disaster or the other occurs to wipe out whatever the people have acquired? When the rate of removal is greater than the rate of accumulation, there is no way an average Haitian would have anything left. That is a natural principle. But that is the unfortunate fate that has befallen Haiti and its people over the ages. But some element of rationality needs to be applied by the global community together with the Haitians to find a way out.

According to reports, the devastating temblor rattled the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince at about 16.53 local time on the fateful day and left the city almost levelled. The damage was staggering because the quake epicenter was situated about 25 km (16 miles) west of the city at a depth of 13 km (8.1 miles). The U.S. Geological Survey recorded at least 33 aftershocks with some magnitudes 5.0. One aftershock measuring 6.1 rocked the city amid the ruins and humanitarian action. Estimates put the figure of those affected at three million. The Haitian Interior Minister, Paul Antoine estimated the casualty figure at between 100,000 and 200,000 lives. Thousands of the dead were buried in mass graves. Experts say, the quakes was the strongest to hit Haiti since 1770, when a magnitude 8.1 tremor rocked Hispaniola and generated a tsunami that claimed 1,790 lives.

The earthquake caused widespread damage to Port-au-Prince and its environs. Some important landmarks in the city were destroyed. The magnificent Presidential Palace was damaged and so was the National Assembly building, the City’s Cathedral and the main jail. Among the casualty were Monsignor Joseph Serge Miot, the Archbishop of Port-au-Prince, the Justice Minister and the Head of the United Nations (UN) Mission in Haiti, Hedi Annabi. The damage to infrastructure was tremendous. The city’s communication system, electricity, the airport, the land and sea transportation system were damaged, which hampered the search and rescue operation.

Many countries have in the wake of the disaster rallied to provide succour. Aid has poured in from different countries including the United States, Cuba, Venezuela, among many others. But this is not the first time that the world is rallying in support of Haiti in disaster. And this may not be the last time. That puts the difficult question of what should be done to save Haiti once and for all. Otherwise how long would it take before another disaster devastates Haiti and the world would be put on its toes?

The history of man on earth is a history of migration and human settlement. From time immemorial, humankind has been on the move. Humans have always migrated from one part of the earth to the other. The push factors include all the uncomfortable factors in the environment while the pull factors are the attractions beckoning at a new location. From ancient times, what determines where men chose to settle is hospitability. That is the ability of a place to provide man with what he needs to live a comfortable life. The ancestors of man were very discernible in choosing where to settle down.

For instance, before men settled in any place, they would ensure that it had food, water, secure from human and natural disasters, among other things. In all this, survival is the key word. The ancients never made the mistake of settling in places where their offspring and descendants would be wiped out by known or unknown forces. Once there was an indication that a settlement was under threat in any way, that settlement was quickly abandoned and the men moved en masse to a new and more comfortable location.

Not all parts of the earth should be inhabited. There are many uninhabited parts of the earth. Equally, there are many uninhabited islands around the world. Places like the tundra areas of North America and Eurasia, the mountainous regions, the Amazon jungle are largely uninhabited. Among the major reasons why such islands are not inhabited is their harsh condition.

Against the backdrop of the enduring principle of migration, the question arises as to the rationale for a human settlement in a place like Haiti with its notoriety for frequent occurrence of natural disasters. With a long history of devastating earthquakes, disastrous tsunamis, damaging hurricanes, etc, why did the first Haitians settle in such a highly vulnerable place against all odds? What were the attractions? What made the endangered people not to vacate the island en masse?

Hispaniola, the Caribbean island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic is seismically active. The island has a long history of destructive earthquakes. As far back as 1751, the French historian, Moreu de Saint-Mery described a destructive earthquake that leveled buildings in Haiti. The 1770 Port-au-Prince earthquake literally caused the whole city to collapse. In May 1842, another earthquake struck that destroyed most parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The most recent natural disasters that have raged include an unnamed storm that killed more than 2000 people in 1935. In 1946, the largest recorded 8.1 magnitude earthquake rocked both Haiti and the Dominican Republic killing 1,790 people. In 1954, Hurricane Hazel left a swath of destruction after killing over 100 people. The 1963 Hurricane Flora claimed over 8000 lives, making it one of the most deadly hurricanes ever. In 1994, Hurricane Gordon claimed more than 1000 lives. Hurricane George killed more than 400 people in 1998 and Tropical Storm Jeanne caused a major deluge that aggravated landslides and severe flooding that left 2,500 people dead. The litany of deaths, destruction and anguish in Haiti is unending. As it were, the country is literally under siege by terrestrial and subterranean forces. There are few countries that have suffered the onslaught of blind natural forces like Haiti.

Haiti is a historical consequence of the trans Atlantic slave trade. The ancestors of the red Indians (Native Americans) who occupied the Americas migrated from Asia probably across the frozen Bering Strait bordering Alaska into America. That was some 30,000 years ago. They occupied the mainland while most of the islands were uninhabited. The trans Atlantic slave trade opened new frontiers in the American hemisphere thereby leading to the discovery of the Caribbean islands including Haiti.

The quest for sugarcane wealth, which was then a lucrative commodity, made the European slave dealers to import slaves from Africa into Haiti and the other islands. The British first occupied Haiti but later ceded it to the French. The harsh condition on the island killed many of the slaves but the French imported more. There were series of events that led to one revolt after another until in 1804, when Toussaint L’Ouverture, a self-educated former slave led the revolt that earned Haiti its independence. That was how Haiti became the first Black Country to gain independence.

From the foregoing, it is clear that the people of Haiti were not on the vulnerable island by choice but by the greed of European slave dealers. Being slaves at the time, who were struggling to get freedom, they had little or no choice to leave the island even in the midst of disaster. The people were forced to live in Haiti, arguably, against their will. They were in a way tied without opportunity to decide for themselves. It is difficult at this time to think of relocating the entire country of over eight million people to a safer territory. That, absolutely, is what might be good for Haiti. But where do you relocate the people? That is the critical question.

We live in a troubled world. In this age of terrorism, anxiety pervades the world. The 9/11 incident in New York that shook the entire world, the Hurricane Katrina, the Asian tsunami, wars and severe economic crises, among others have shaken even the most stable nations. Practically, no day passes without news of heart-breaking incidents in one part of the world or the other. Despite all the available technology, the modern man is stressed and vulnerable. When all this are added to unpredictable natural disasters, it is clear that the people of Haiti are definitely biting more than they can chew. The United Nations, the U.S., the European Union should think of how to save Haiti from further natural disasters

February 2, 2010  Tags: ,   Posted in: Luke Onyekakeyah  Comments

Obasanjo is an Honourable Man…

by Simon Kolawole

Honour has a new admirer. Morality has a new sweat heart. His name is Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Speaking at an event in Abuja on Thursday, Obasanjo released his most direct salvos against President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua since the ex-president honourably imposed the Katsina man as his successor in 2007 via elections that were globally considered to be too low for zero, even by Nigerian standards. Listen to Obasanjo: “If you take up an assignment, a job – elected, appointed, whatever it is – and then your health starts to fail and you will not be able to deliver to satisfy yourself and to satisfy the people you are supposed to serve, then there is a path of honour and the path of morality… and if you don’t do that, then you don’t know anything.”

Reacting to an accusation that he deliberately imposed a “sick man” as President to punish Nigerians for rejecting his third term project, Obasanjo launched into self-defence and self-justification in an unforgettable way, revealing all about the President’s kidney ailment and making every effort to reassure us yet again that everything he did while in office was in the best interest of Nigeria. Hear him again: “When in the year 2006, the idea came up as to succession, I was convinced in my mind that a Southerner succeeding me would not augur well for Nigeria… (by the way, that was a nice message for a predominantly Northern audience). Now, I was looking for [a person] who has three important qualities. One, he has enough intellectual capacity to run the affairs of Nigeria. Two, he has sufficient personal integrity to run the affairs of Nigeria. Three, he is sufficiently broad-minded enough – politically, religiously, socially, whatever to manage the affairs of Nigeria.”

Did you notice the fact that, in Obasanjo’s moral thinking, succession had nothing to do with the choice of the voters? He alone decided it was not good for a Southerner to succeed him; he alone listed the criteria of who would succeed him; and he alone decided who would succeed him – no matter how Nigerians decided to vote. We always said our votes never mattered, and the man of honour has confirmed our suspicion again. He was telling us, in other words, that he had pre-determined presidential election results. He’s an honourable man. He insisted he did not pick Yar’Adua as President so that he would not perform, maintaining: “How can I put so much into this country both in peace and in war and I will begin to run it down? If you have fear of God, you will not make that statement.” Those were the words of Obasanjo, the man who fears God.

Let me tell you something about Obasanjo and honour and morality. He is, typically, trying to extricate himself from the Yar’Adua impasse just to win public applause. When Obasanjo started plotting the third term project in 2004 with his political reform conference, he denied nursing any such ambition. Billions of naira went down the drain at the conference which achieved virtually nothing. As his constitutional term limit drew near in 2006, he adopted every tactic in the book to amend the constitution and get a third term. But he kept denying it. He manipulated the polity, unleashed EFCC on his political opponents and did everything he could to perpetuate himself in power. Lawmakers were being offered (or given) N50 million each to vote for third term. He has now indirectly admitted he did not start thinking of succession until 2006 – after the failure of the third term project. And Obasanjo is an honourable man.

While on a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) campaign tour in 2007, Obasanjo openly said he would send EFCC after Dr. Olusegun Mimiko who was contesting for governorship in Ondo State against his party. Mimiko, on the ticket of the Labour Party, won the election, but INEC denied him his victory until the courts saved him. Adams Oshiomhole’s victory at the Edo polls was initially denied him, no thanks to Obasanjo. Rotimi Amaechi’s candidacy in Rivers State was truncated, no thanks to Obasanjo’s K-leg, although the Supreme Court eventually served justice hot and fresh. Obasanjo plotted and plotted against Dr Chris Ngige as governor of Anambra State to such a ridiculous extent that Ngige was kidnapped by Chris Uba, Obasanjo’s sidekick. Political thugs set the state of fire, burning the Government House in Awka, the state capital.

Obasanjo revealed, in an open letter, that Uba and Ngige were arguing in his presence at Aso Rock. “Uba told Ngige, ‘You know you did not win the election?’ Ngige said, ‘Yes.’ Uba said, ‘Chris, you know Peter Obi won that election? You know what we did to write the results in your favour’,” Obasanjo wrote in a letter to the then chairman of the PDP, Chief Audu Ogbeh. “I then told both of them to get out of my presence.” Obasanjo withdrew Ngige’s security, just to appease Uba, and claimed that Ngige was no longer a governor having resigned under duress. He eventually made Uba a member of the PDP Board of Trustees. He got Ngige expelled from the PDP. Lamidi Adedibu unleashed terror on Ibadan and orchestrated the removal of Rashidi Ladoja as governor of Oyo State for failing to deliver public funds to him. Obasanjo watched in conspiracy and applauded it all. And Obasanjo is an honourable man.

When Obasanjo came to power in 1999, he told us the refineries were not working because Gen. Sani Abacha was awarding fuel import contracts to his cronies and family members. During the entire eight years of Obasanjo, we were still importing fuel. The refineries were still down. Fuel import contracts were in trillions of naira. Who got the import contracts? Abacha’s cronies again? Obasanjo’s regime oversaw one of the most non-transparent eras at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Up till today, every attempt to probe the finances of NNPC has been frustrated.

Even the probe of the power sector, with all the billions of dollars that were pumped into it in Obasanjo’s eight years, has been politically frustrated. And Obasanjo is an honourable man.

He is a clever man, no matter your opinion of him. In the days of President Shehu Shagari, Obasanjo kept quiet until he saw a golden opportunity. When the economy began to crumble under the impact of a global economic meltdown, Obasanjo gauged the mood of the public and unleashed a ferocious attack on Shagari. He was applauded. In the days of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, Obasanjo always carefully chose the moment. Anytime Nigerians were disenchanted with the government, Obasanjo always issued virulent statements to “align” with the people. Obasanjo likes to be seen as a fighter for the masses.

But for the eight years he was in government, he could not tolerate dissenting voices. People who criticised his government were labelled homosexuals, godless and corrupt. Now that he knows that the public mood is against Yar’Adua’s failure to allow Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan act in his absence, Obasanjo has “aligned” with the public again, preaching honour and morality. Good old Obasanjo.

But can Nigerians be deceived? You may say that we should separate the message from the messenger.

That would be a convenient argument. But anybody who knows Obasanjo very well will surely predict that the man is up to some mischief. He, no doubt, wants to extricate himself from the Yar’Adua debacle. He, no doubt, wants to wash off his hands like the Pontius Pilate, two-and-a-half years after imposing Yar’Adua as President. Let’s just hope that this is all there is to Obasanjo’s public statements of last week. Let’s hope he does not have anything up his sleeve again. Remember, Obasanjo is an honourable man.

And Four Other Things…

Maduekwe at it Again

I got a call late into the night on Thursday, but I was fast asleep. It was from a senior colleague of mine. He said he was in distress. “I was watching an interview Foreign Affairs Minister, Chief Ojo Maduekwe, granted the BBC. I was thoroughly distressed,” he said. Thank God I did not watch it. One of Maduekwe’s most memorable answers, I was told, was when he was asked how he had been managing our foreign affairs. The Minister replied: “The important thing is to understand the President’s policies, his vision, his goals and once that is understood, and he believes that this Foreign Minister knows what those visions are… he expects the Foreign Minister to know what to do.” Lord have mercy!

Death on the Plateau

Two weeks ago, I wrote on religious crisis in Nigeria while commenting on the blacklisting of the country by the US. I wrote: “The religious conflicts that we experience in Nigeria are usually sparked off by an incident at a particular point in time, given that the atmosphere is permanently tense and polluted with hate, mistrust and resentment.” I was not surprised at all that the recent clashes between Muslims and Christians in Jos, Plateau State, was caused by a “minor” argument over encroachment on a plot of land. Even a little argument over somebody spitting on the road can spark off an orgy of killings. These tensions are permanently there. A little spark sets the city on fire. And Jos will never have peace until the political leaders stop taking sides. The Fulani always defend the Fulani, the Berom always defend the Berom. No conflict can ever be resolved that way. The time for home truth has come, no matter whose ox is gored.

Better Future ahead?

I was very, very delighted that the election in the Etsako constituency of the Edo House of Assembly held peacefully yesterday. The reports as at last night showed that there was no violence. Six persons were arrested for impersonation, which is not a terrible figure. I am saying all this because I was really afraid there was going to be bloodshed. Both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Action Congress (AC) had been talking tough before the election. The withdrawal of the military Joint Task Force (JTF) from the area was seen as a precursor to the rigging of the election by the PDP. I also got reports that parties had stockpiled arms. That there was no major incident is very encouraging. I wish this would be a sign of good things ahead for the electoral system.

Tenure Tinkering

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has now set the term limit for bank CEOs at a maximum of two five-year terms. I have my reservations on the policy, especially how it caught up with CEOs who had served in different banks and whose previous tenures were to be added together in line with the new policy. I agree totally that nobody should be CEO for life, but I still think there is some deficiency in the policy. I believe it should not have taken effect from dozens of years ago. But if it can be demonstrated that this will help in instilling the principles of corporate governance in the banking industry, we cannot argue against it. Let’s just wait and see.

January 24, 2010  Tags: , ,   Posted in: Simon Kolawole  Comments

Obasanjo On Obama: Two-faces And A Forked Tongue

By Sonala Olumhense

EVERY Nigeria ought to read “Obama’s election and the needed change,” in The Guardian of October 6, 2008. It is painful to read, but it was Aristotle, remember, who taught that “We cannot learn without pain.”

The article was penned by Olusegun Obasanjo. This is a man that had two chances to serve his country, two chances to institutionalise lasting reforms, two chances to set the best of Nigeria to work for Nigeria, two chances to be a respected statesman.

Two chances, 20 years apart. What did he do? He served himself, violated human and political rights, and left his country poorer. In the end, his biggest achievement was not in setting Nigeria alight with change, but in superintending duplicity in government and unscrupulousness in politics.

This week, he watched a 47-year old black American win a historic election in the United States. How did he react? He drafted a rambling, self-serving sermon for a newspaper. For a man who claims not to read Nigerian newspapers, he deprived himself of any rest in order to get his words into a Nigerian newspaper.

He wrote: “The feeling of change that Senator Obama engendered through his campaign for the White House represents a significant theme of change we have all aspired and fought for in different areas, regions, cultures and historical times,” he said, pompously. “The desire for change has never been the question nor has it ever been in question. It is the extent, the range, the tone, the quantity, the quantum and the sustenance of change that has always been the question.”

I beg your pardon?

Obasanjo is the antithesis of change. He hates to see younger people, particularly if they disagree with him. He hates to see women, if they are not doing his bidding. He hates to hear an idea that is different from his. He hates to see Nigeria move forward. He hates to see change, if, by that word, we mean something that is different from what he wants.

Notice how he says that “It is the extent, the range, the tone, the quantity, the quantum and the sustenance of change that has always been the question.”

It is of this kind of obfuscation that Obasanjo is made. Change is for the better.

He came into office in 1999 through widely-rigged elections. In 2003, as he swore that the Peoples’ Democratic Party would rule for ages, he brought rigging out of smoke filled rooms into the open and attempted to make it respectable. That is change? For the better.

In 2007, having failed to manipulate the law to enable him remain in office, he sabotaged even his own party and handpicked the presidential candidate of his party. How is that change?

In office, the entire world saw Obasanjo as he ruled, not like democrat, but like a tyrant. Everybody knows about his disdain for the rule of law: remember how he gladly accepted illegal donations to the 2003 elections donations and the Obasanjo Presidential Library. Andy Uba, the presidential aide, used the presidential jet to launder money; Obasanjo accepted gifts from the proceeds.

Change? In office, Obasanjo found no conflicts setting up private institutions to compete with those of the federal government. He put his Bells University over the University of Ibadan, and his private secondary schools ahead of his governments?

Change? At Transcorp, he helped himself to millions of shares. In his cabinet, he was his own Minister for Petroleum, and he treated Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF) as though it was his private trust fund for the benefit of his favoured. From PTDF accounts at Equatorial Trust Bank and Trans-International Bank (TIB), this man who wants Obama to remember him bought expensive cars for women, and buses for his private school.

Change? While Obasanjo was in office, Nigeria was able to recover billions of US dollars that had been looted by his jailor, Sani Abacha. But Obasanjo never accounted for a penny. He claimed a war against corruption but he personally took the menace of graft to new highs. Under him, in his own party, men like James Ibori and Peter Odili and Lucky Igbinedion flourished not only as the new faces of conspicuous corruption, but because they were having so much fun they never remembered to govern. Like Obasanjo, their hero, it was power without accountability. Obasanjo ran the PDP as though the mission was to ruin Nigeria.

Reform? In 2004, and with great fanfare, Obasanjo launched a phantom economic reform programme he called the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). This one-pill cure, he said, would reform the government and its institutions; develop the private sector; implement a social charter for the people; and re-orientate the people with an enduring African value system.

He boasted that NEEDS would create one million jobs within nine months, and a total of seven million by the time he left office in 2007. It would raise Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product from 4.6 per cent in 2003 to 7 per cent in 2007; lower inflation from 11 per cent in 2003 to 9 per cent in 2007, and raise electricity generation from 4,000 megawatts in 2004 to 10,000 in 2007.

The NEEDS cheap trick disappeared within months and Obasanjo never mentioned it again. Before our eyes, it became the most spectacular economic policy bust Nigeria had ever seen. And while Obasanjo enriched himself, poverty and unemployment grew, and grew and grew. It got so embarrassing that he asked the civil service for a re-definition of poverty; he did not want to hear that “nonsense” about 70 per cent of Nigerians living on less than one dollar per day. He said he did not know any family that did not know what it would eat.

Change? If Obama’s mantra was “Yes We Can,” Obasanjo’s was “Yes You’re Nothing.” He was the only wise animal in the jungle. For him, you were doubly stupid if you happened to be younger. Even Chinua Achebe, Nigeria’s internationally-revered writer, was insulted by Obasanjo in 2004 when he objected to the offer of a National Award. Spokesman Femi Fani-Kayode had a few choice words for Prof. Achebe from the president: “If you feel that your country does not deserve to honour you, then we believe you certainly do not deserve your country.”

In Nigeria, Obama would never have made it past the eye of the needle of Temperance Farms. This does not mean there are no younger people known to Obasanjo. Bu they have to be people willing to prostrate 24 hours a day, shut their mouths, and run errands. They have to be people without an independent thought in their heads; if they were men, they also had to lack life in their lions.

Obasanjo is speaking of change? This is a man whose hero was the late Lamidi Adedibu, a man who had ballot boxes in his Ibadan home weeks before the 2003 election. Instead of ensuring prosecution, Obasanjo told the nation to leave the man alone. This explains why he speaks about “the extent, the range, the tone, the quantity, the quantum… of change.” Little wonder Obasanjo’s annual list of National Honorees was loaded with the Adedibus of Nigeria. Obasanjo’s was not a Nigeria capable of acknowledging talent, let alone genius. His response to excellence was to destroy it because of his deep-seated complex. A people cannot thrive under a temperamental, arrogant and self-centred leadership, and Obasanjo is proof. A people cannot thrive in a desert of standards or scruples or principles. A people cannot rise when they are offered double standards, two faces and forked tongues.

What Obasanjo should have penned is an apology to a nation that he has denied truth, oxygen and manure for an entire generation while he enthroned mediocrity. And if Obasanjo wants to know who Obama really is, Obama is Obasanjo on trial. But if Obasanjo wants forgiveness, he will not find it in Chicago or in Washington DC. His reputation traveled too far ahead of history, and the presidential jet.

January 24, 2010  Tags: ,   Posted in: Sonala Olumhense  Comments

As Obasanjo Ditches Yar’Adua

By Reuben Abati

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s prayer at the Annual Trust Awards that God should punish him if indeed he deliberately chose as his successor a sick man so he would not be able to perform and possibly outshine him, has drawn quite a number of Amens from the public with the outrightly cynical insisting that God is already inflicting punishment on the former President. The reference to God often drives up sentiments among Nigerians and in an overtly religious society such as ours, every appeal to God is intended to have a special effect. It is a psychological fact that pastors rely on so well, and which Obasanjo often deploys in seasons of doubt. It is possible to be emotional in responding to his latest intrusion into the public space. But more benefit could be derived from looking at the facts of the case, and why Obasanjo has chosen now to speak up on the subject of the President’s ill-health, and what message(s) he could possibly be sending across to the public and certain stakeholders. Obasanjo not only ditched President Yar’çdua publicly, he also advised him to resign if his health has failed him. The wily OBJ talked about the path of honour and the path of morality.

In Yar’çdua’s case both are obviously currently conflicted. The Obasanjo that spoke at the Daily Trust event tried to project himself as a patriot who is more interested in national progress. Now that we know where Obasanjo stands in this matter, when next Professor Wole Soyinka, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Femi Falana and others want to embark on another “Enough is Enough. To Save Nigeria” street march, they should remember to invite him along! But is Obasanjo now one of the progressives? Or he is merely playing to the gallery? Or he is trying to absolve himself of blame? Some of his friends have praised him for lending his voice to the calls for Yar’Adua’s resignation.

There is nothing original in him position though. He is waking up to the truth, more than two years late. Is this not the same Obasanjo who only a fortnight ago pointedly refused to comment on the President’s health? If it was not safe for him to pass a comment then, why is it now safe for him to do so? Or was he waiting for the right platform? Telling Yar’çdua to get out at an event in his own backyard, seems a clever way of loading a statement with appropriate weight. Or could it be that Obasanjo already knows something that is not yet public knowledge and which puts him in a safe position to fulminate? For a man who has been to jail and back, simply because he was critical of a sitting Head of State, and who himself does not suffer fools gladly when he wielded power, Obasanjo must be sure that it is only safe to step on a dead cobra’s tail. So what are we dealing with? Opportunism? An attempt at self-ingratiation? Rather than applause, Obasanjo’s statement, arguably his most poignant public statement, since he left office in May 2007 should invite more questions. President Yar’çdua’s ill-health has set an invidious power game in motion and OBJ is trying to get on top of it. But not so fast, sir.

According to the former President, at the time he decided to support President Yar’çdua’s candidacy, he was looking for three qualities: intellectual capacity, integrity and broad-mindedness. In 2007, Candidate Yar’çdua was not the only man in the PDP Presidential race who could boast of these three qualities. That was a fact. Another fact: Obasanjo and his agents had made up their mind that it was Yar’çdua that they wanted. He even told Nigerians at the time that he knew those who would not succeed him. One by one, those who showed interest in the race were arm-twisted, or frightened, out of it. Long before the PDP Presidential primaries, it was common knowledge that both the PDP Presidential ticket and the Presidency had been willed by the man in power to the then Governor of Katsina state.

Yar’çdua was a reluctant candidate, the most reluctant of all the candidates. Obasanjo also wanted Yar’çdua in order to spite Abubakar Atiku, his Vice President with whom he had serious problems. Atiku is a product of the General Shehu Yar’çdua political dynasty, and the leader of the late General’s wing of the PDP; the once powerful People’s Democratic Movement (PDM). In 2002/3, Atiku had made the mistake of boasting that it was he and the PDM machinery that he inherited that brought Obasanjo to power. At the PDP Presidential primaries in 2003, Atiku and his PDM supporters almost humiliated Obasanjo. He was forced to eat the humble pie. What better way to divide and demolish the PDM in 2007, than to hand over power to the junior brother of the founder of the PDM? Handing over power to Yar’çdua was a cold-hearted, Machiavellian move on Obasanjo’s part. With due respect, it had nothing to do with all that rhetoric about intellectual capacity, integrity and broad-mindedness. How much of these three, now presented by OBJ as if they are divine imperatives, did we get from the eight years of the Obasanjo administration?

To all intents and purposes, former President Obasanjo wanted Umaru Yar’çdua as president because that was what would serve his own political interests then. Eye-witnesses to that campaign process will recall that it was President Obasanjo that did most of the campaigning. At several rallies, the man who wanted to be President was not allowed to speak. Obasanjo did all the talking, and subsequently, he would raise Yar’Adua’s hand. At a point, there were comments about the need for Obasanjo to allow the PDP candidate to speak to Nigerians. The first time we heard of the seven-point agenda was on inauguration day! Yar’çdua became President without Nigerians really knowing him. Now, Obasanjo says don’t blame me. He gave me a medical record which said he was in good shape. Obasanjo was Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. A Presidential aspirant gave him a sheet of paper certifying himself fit and he Obasanjo did not deem it necessary to entertain doubts!

The subtext of the Obasanjo comment is that Nigerians not he, made President Yar’çdua president. Nigeria ’s big men are very good at revising history. In the light of available evidence, it seems to me that even if OBJ had full knowledge of the risk factors in making a man who had had a kidney transplant President, he would still have chosen Yar’Adua. If the man was so fit, why was Obasanjo the one selling him to Nigerians, instead of allowing him to do more of the talking? So grateful was the Yar’çdua family after the Presidential elections and the inauguration of Yar’çdua as President that three women from the Yar’çdua household including the brand new President’s mother, and his late brother’s wife went to Ota specially to thank Obasanjo. They did not issue a statement thanking Nigerians. They went to Ota! And now, Obasanjo ditches the same Yar’Adua.

The timing of his latest politics is suspicious but his outburst is understandable. The Atiku threat no longer exists. The PDM is in disarray. Atiku who wanted to replace Obasanjo and in the process became an issue in Nigerian Presidential politics has since gone to Obasanjo’s home to pay homage. All the other candidates, North and South in the PDP who wanted to be President have been driven into their shells, with some of them still battling with the EFCC yoke that was slung around their necks. But Yar’Adua on whose behalf all that effort was made has shown no gratitude to former President Obasanjo. The Yar’Adua government began at the centre with a systematic assault on the Obasanjo legacy. Obasanjo and his spin-doctors used to boast that the dividends of democracy that Nigerians wanted so badly would fructify in the fullness of time on the altar of sustainability.

If they thought Yar’çdua would sustain Obasanjo’s reform agenda and programmes, they made a mistake. These were the first set of pillars that the new government pulled down. Many Obasanjo boys who had worked tirelessly on the Yar’çdua-must-be-President agenda suddenly found themselves being treated as persona non grata. They have been chased out of government, into exile, or into EFCC detention centres. Under Obasanjo, there was something that assumed a political shape called Corporate Nigeria, the jet-riding set that donated money to political causes and strolled into the Presidential Villa at will. They owned the biggest businesses in town and they didn’t hide the fact of their closeness to the President. More than two years later, the Yar’çdua government has successfully castrated this group.

The 24-hour gate passes to Presidential Villa that they used to brandish have been withdrawn! Some of them have lost their banks and are now struggling to stay out of jail. Even those who thought they knew Yar’Adua ( “he was my senior in secondary school”; “I know him”) have all been shocked: if they thought they would prosper politically under him, the man gave them poisoned gifts. Obasanjo himself has not been spared. Yar’çdua and his team have not treated him as the Godfather of the administration. His position as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the PDP has been rendered almost useless. He has been turned into a laughing stock in the company of those he once said would never be President. Ordinary Nigerians may regard President Yar’çdua as a weak leader because of his illness, but his power-politics has been very strong and he may have made great strides in that direction that could affect Nigeria in more fundamental ways than we may realise. But Obasanjo is smart. He is choosing his own time to strike back. But why strike a man when he is weak? Whatever may be Obasanjo’s shortcomings, his voice still carries weight in Nigerian politics. By coming out against Yar’Adua, he will be setting off a chain of reactions that should be closely watched. What will be the Katsina response to the bomb from Ota? And why has Obasanjo suddenly become freshly voluble at the time when Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is said to be taking charge gradually at the Presidency?

It is a game of musical chairs, not yet an end game. Two or three newspapers have suggested that President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua may show up in Nigeria next week, looking healthy and strong enough to carry on. Should that happen, it will be not necessarily a miracle, but a political masterstroke. Some people may have to leave town. For there could be serious reprisals from the Yar’çdua end which may not have demonstrated a capacity to keep promises, but remarkable adroitness in teaching ambitious men and women bitter lessons about the game of power. Even if the man does not return next week, with INEC poised to announce the time-table for the 2011 elections in March, the professional political class will see the need to engage in further mischief.

January 24, 2010  Tags: , ,   Posted in: Reuben Abati  Comments


Get Adobe Flash playerPlugin by wpburn.com wordpress themes