By Reuben Abati

INTERNATIONAL organisations and other stakeholders commenting on the coup that took place in Niger on February 19 have been making the right diplomatic and politically correct noises. While all that familiar stuff about a military coup being an aberration and a major setback for the democratic process in Africa is acceptable, the truth is that this is a perfect case of good riddance to bad rubbish in Niger. Mamadou Tandja had become a nuisance, holding that poor nation and its people hostage for more than a year to pursue a selfish ambition that saw him getting an additional three years in office last November. Tandja’s two-term tenure of five years each expired in December but long before then, he came up with the idea of prolonging his tenure in office by another three years, obviously the first step towards life rule. Everyone who opposed him was hounded into silence or exile. He sacked the Constitutional Court.

Members of his Cabinet who dared to raise a voice were expelled too. The media was harrassed. Civil society activists were intimidated and blackmailed. Tandja put together a team of sycophants who shouted Tazarce: continuity. He suspended the Constitution, started ruling by decrees and issued arrest warrants for opposition leaders. The referendum that was held in August 2009 was a kangaroo exercise with a predictable outcome. Tandja had his way. But he underestimated the people. For a whole week leading up to the coup that took place on Friday, civil society protesters took to the streets in Niamey and elsewhere. When the military junta struck, there was dancing in the same streets. Tandja is said to be in a military facility and the coup plotters have announced that he is in good health. Whatever pains he may be going through is self-inflicted. He is the victim of his own greed.

One of the first assignments of the junta should be to put Tandja and his cohorts on trial. His self-perpetuation gambit was based on the funny script that his government had done so much for Nigeriens, and that he needed to consolidate the gains of his government’s economic reforms. A lie. What reforms? Tandja’s economic reform brought Chinese investors and more money into the pockets of crooks. Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. For the ten years that Tandja reigned, that country’s development index travelled consistently Southwards. At 71, Mamadou Tandja had no fresh ideas, no new tricks that he could play to promote the people’s interests. He was acting out a bad script that had been authored before him in Nigeria, and it failed on stage, and even in those countries where the leaders became monarchs hoping to die in office, the ultimate outcome was one of shame. Remember Mobutu Sese Seko, Kamuzu Banda, Houphouet-Boigny, Idi Amin Dada: Africa ’s despots.

The more important value of what has happened in Niger lies in the strong message that it sends to African leaders, many of whom may be tempted to copy the Tandja experiment. The coup is not merely a military coup, it is a triumph of sorts for the Nigerien civil society. It produced in that regard an interesting paradox, with the leaders of the “revolution”, Col Djibril Adamou Harouna and Major Salou Djibo promising that they intend to ensure Niger becomes “an example of democracy and good governance.” The ousted Tandja rode on the back of the military to power in 1999; he has taken the same route out of power. His exit sends another message: that dictatorship creates the conditions for its own failure.

Following his decision to force himself on the people of Niger, both ECOWAS and the African Union suspended the country. The US and the EU withdrew aid. On Thursday, Nigeria, Niger ’s neighbour, and the regional power, quickly rushed a statement to the press condemning the coup. Former Nigerian Head of State, General Abdusalami Abubakar is the leader of a team to Niger holding talks with the coup makers. Where was Nigeria all this while? Tandja was able to flourish in part, because Nigeria looked the other way.

Now it is being speculated that the coup in Niger has a Nigerian element: not necessarily the fact that certain persons in the international community thought they heard Nigeria instead of Niger , with an immediate effect on oil prices, but that the coup is meant to test possible international reactions to a similar incident in Nigeria . Mischievous as this may sound, it should not be discountenanced, more so as there has been a copy-cat pattern to military interventions in West African politics. Besides, for more than two months, the Nigerian political leadership has been engaged in a death-wish. When politicians suspend the Constitution as Tandja did, and as the Nigerian leadership appears to be doing, they write a long letter to trouble. Political leaders should not seek to remain in power because it suits their animal instincts, they are required to respect the law, and not succumb to the temptation to bend or change it for selfish reasons.

Col Djibril Adamou Harouna told Nigeriens: “The army loves the people and will always stand by Niger .” The best way to demonstrate that love and commitment is for the junta to make its intervention brief. It should set about initiating fresh elections within the shortest possible time, and ensure that Niger returns quickly to the path of democratic governance. I recommend six months. It must live up to its assumed name: “Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy,” and turn its intervention into an opportunity for a new beginning. The long-term challenge however, will be to rescue that country from the claws of poverty, instability and insecurity.

In addition to the ECOWAS framework, Nigeria should see the urgent need to contribute to the task of bringing stability to our neighbour to the North, a country with which Nigeria shares not just a border but intertwined lives and cultures. Poor governance combined with elite greed poses the biggest threat to Africa ’s democratisation process in addition to ethnic/religious differences and mass illiteracy. As these transform into elements of state failure, more African states, from Guinea to Zimbabwe, to Kenya and Angola may implode. This is a terrible burden for a continent left behind by the development clock. The democratisation project in Africa is in as great a need for protection and promotion now as was the case two decades ago. Too many African states are pseudo-democracies, Nigeria inclusive; and although there has been considerable growth in civil society responsiveness and the role of international actors, altogether the conflicting spectacle of progress and failure invites much pessimism about now and the future.

If You See The Saudi King…

THE six-man delegation appointed by the Executive Council of the Federation is travelling today to Saudi Arabia to do two things: visit the sick Nigerian President whose ill-health held the entire country hostage for more than 70 days before the National Assembly organised a “civilian coup”, and then thank the Saudi King for his hospitality. Shopping, disappearing to take care of personal issues, staying back to pursue family interests- all of this is not part of the trip and we are hoping that all six men will return before the next meeting of the Executive Council on Wednesday with useful information.

It has been reported that one Nigerian, Mrs Turai Yar’Adua, who also happens to be the first wife of the President, is the one who determines who sees the President or not. Too many fruitless trips have been made to Saudi Arabia by government officials with all the emissaries unable to see the President because Madam Turai says no. We can give her the benefit of the doubt: the President is probably being hidden from visitors on doctors’ advice. But doctors also ought to recognise extra-ordinary situations. If leprosy is not one of the cocktail of ailments that they are treating, they should allow the six-man delegation from Nigeria ’s Federal Cabinet to see our President. They are coming to the hospital as “the eyes and ears” of all Nigerians. They don’t have to say a word to him; they can just wave and nod, and observe carefully. Nigeria today stands at a crossroads: not too many countries have been so affected by Presidential ill-health.

The King of Saudi Arabia has been identified repeatedly in the last 72 hours as the good host who is picking up President Yar’Adua’s bills. Some reports suggest that President Yar’çdua is no longer in a hospital but in a special facility provided by the Saudi King. The Saudi Arabian authorities must clear the air at once: to reassure Nigerians that in purporting to act as Yar’Adua’s keeper, they have no intentions of violating Nigeria ’s sovereignty. For it is this country’s sovereignty that is being compromised if the head of another sovereign nation is allowed to keep our President as a willing medical hostage, without allowing access to him.

The six men going to Saudi Arabia have all obtained their visas. Given the importance of the trip to Nigerians, and we hope the Saudi Embassy in Nigeria is awake to its duties, this can be taken as sign that the Saudi King has been duly informed, diplomatic protocols have been sorted out and the six envoys will get a chance to deliver their message. Anything short of that will amount to an unfriendly act. My fear though is that a low-ranking officer may be assigned to attend to the “nosey” folks from Nigeria ! Should that happen, and an insult posted to Nigeria’s 140 million people, the Jonathan administration should immediately invite the Nigerian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to Nigeria for very serious discussions.

King Abdullah recently hosted the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton to a buffet lunch, showing that when he wants to play the diplomatic game, he sure knows how to do it. If the Federal Government delegation succeeds in having an audience with the King, they shouldn’t be more interested in bowing and scraping, they should tell him Nigeria’s immediate future hangs in the balance, because its President is stranded in Saudi Arabia and the people have no information about him. The Nigerian team, comprising five Ministers and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation should not return empty-handed.

Tiger Woods’ Apology

SO Tiger Woods has now apologised, publicly and properly for being “irresponsible” and “selfish”: kudos to his media handlers who want him back in the good books of all conservative elements who think his infidelity is worse than the original sin. But they want more than that: they want the withdrawn endorsements and goodwill back. Fine. I think Tiger Woods has paid enough penance. This hand-wringing over sexual dalliances, in addition to sex addiction therapy, strikes all the necessary moral notes, but can we go back to golf before Tiger Woods begins to imagine himself an eternal victim? No one is asking all the ladies who “stole” him from his wife to offer any apologies. If guilt is to be shared they are just as guilty.

By apologising, Tiger Woods has reassured everyone who invested faith and energy in his talents and success that he is aware and appreciative of the burden he bears as role model and public figure. A strong sense of his humility and humanism is well-conveyed. It is a necessary lesson for all public figures about the moral compass that defines their role-playing, a compass that is beyond their control.

Postponing Tiger’s return to competitive golf extends his saga needlessly. He is a champion on the golf course: that is the best place to work all of this out. Tiger Woods’ mother probably has the best perspective. Shortly after her son’s press conference, she told reporters: “Sometimes think there is double standard. He didn’t do anything illegal. He didn’t kill anybody. But he try to improve himself. He try to go to therapy and help. He change that and making better. When he do all this thing, he will come out stronger and better person…I am so proud to be his mother, period.” Momma is right.

by Okey Ndibe

In addition to sheer amazement, many of us following the argument that a comatose Umaru Yar’Adua is fit to run Nigeria must have a sense of déjà vu. Nigeria is not the only country that falls into the hands of inept, clueless leadership. But it may well be one of the rare countries where seemingly sane people argue that inept leaders are indispensable. Cast a backward glance at Nigeria’s woeful past and you’ll see examples galore of shameless apologists who told the world that Nigeria’s fate was bound up with that of some certified mediocrity in power. Yakubu Gowon trumpeted his own indispensability when he sought to persuade Nigerians that it wasn’t feasible for him to exit the political stage in 1976. Yet, Nigeria survived Gowon’s removal in a coup led by the late General Murtala Muhammed.

In 1983, the National Party of Nigeria deployed a variant of the argument to justify its rigging regatta to ensure that a confounded Shehu Shagari continued to preside over the affairs of Nigeria.

How about General Ibrahim Babangida? Even as the nation tottered under his watch, he and his coterie tried to package him as a genius of statecraft. Convinced by his own propaganda, Mr. Babangida set and then sabotaged successive timetables for his withdrawal. It took his June 12 misadventure to finally expose the insincerity of his transition program, and to precipitate his forced exit.

Then came Sani Abacha, one of the most puzzling and dangerous of Nigeria’s cast of visionless, greedy, and tragically mischievous rulers. A failure at everything else it takes to be a transformative leader, Abacha achieved mastery in the art and science of sustaining himself in power. Using a Machiavellian mix of carrots and sticks, he intimidated or bought off much of the political class.

Week after week, a retinue of traditional rulers (with little or no tradition) and politicians flocked to Abuja to venerate Abacha. In stunning assaults on language and logic, they proclaimed Abacha a “dynamic leader.” They told him that the nation would be hopeless without him to lead it. Speaking from rehearsed lines, they pleaded with Abacha to ignore his “disgruntled” critics and to go ahead and succeed himself.

In the midst of this absurd theatre of worship, Abacha slumped and died. The style and circumstances of his death were fitting: surrounded by prostitutes, some of them imported from abroad. For the first time in Nigeria’s history, the death of a head of state provoked spontaneous and widespread ululation, dancing and bingeing – a fiesta of celebration.

Olusegun Obasanjo, a victim of Abacha’s repression, was brought out of prison and – without psychiatric evaluation – installed as president. He spent his first term, of four years, on an endless junket to foreign countries. Then he spent the second term – which he achieved by dint of rigging – to display his vindictive and grasping tendencies. Nearing the end of his ruinous run as president, he and his cohorts concocted a depraved plan: to change the Nigerian constitution to enable him to run (and rig) a third term.

Those who championed that awful scheme told us that Nigeria could not afford to be Obasanjoless. They claimed that he had founded modern Nigeria – never mind that he built few roads, despite hundreds of billions voted each year, or that his guarantee, on his “honor,” of regular, uninterrupted power supply had turned into a $10 billion bad joke, or that he openly disdained the judiciary, meddled with the legislature, imposed candidates both on his party as well as voters, and enthroned a culture of primitive pocketing of public funds and brazen disregard for decency and ethics.

In an insult to a nation of 140 million, his stalwarts asked, “If not Obasanjo, who?” They contended that Obasanjo, and Obasanjo alone, was capable of husbanding the reforms they alleged that he’d initiated. That argument, stupid on the face of it, nevertheless found traction even with people who ought to know better. In exasperation, I asked one of them: “What if we allowed Obasanjo to steal a third term, is he going to guarantee us, on his honor, that he would never die? Otherwise, if he died, would Nigerians then send a strongly-worded petition to God to raise him from the dead to avert the very extinction of Nigeria?”

Once it dawned on Mr. Obasanjo that Nigerians were in no mood to gratify his illicit third term aspiration, he manufactured a vengeful, do-or-die response. First, he imposed a feeble Yar’Adua as the presidential candidate of the PDP, and then – in an act of supreme malice – foisted his anointed on the nation.

Obasanjo’s recent effort to rewrite the history of his imposition of Yar’Adua was seen by many Nigerians for what it is: a bald fabrication.

Meanwhile, with Yar’Adua, Nigerians are back in familiar territory. Since leaving on November 23 – not on his feet, but on a stretcher – Yar’Adua seems to have fallen into a black hole. Abjectly incompetent even in his healthiest of days, the man cannot now maintain any semblance of being in charge.

That fact has not fazed his acolytes who are using his name to gorge fat on Nigeria’s treasury. Michael Aondoakaa, the inner circle’s most visible spokesman, has told us that Yar’Adua is governing Nigeria from his hospital bed in Saudi Arabia.

For the Aondoakaas of our world, it is okay to reduce Nigeria to Yar’Adua’s size. If Yar’Adua ends up spending six or more months in a foreign hospital, there’s nothing wrong – in Aondoakaa’s book – with letting Nigeria flounder, as long as Yar’Adua’s (and his proxies’) narrow interests are served. If Nigeria must die, so be it, but Turai Yar’Adua’s desire to reign on as “First Lady” must not be tampered with.

Where’s proof that Yar’Adua even recognizes that there’s an entity called Nigeria much less that he is governing? Ask Aondoakaa and he’s likely to tell you that the sick man signed a budget (a scam) or that he spoke with the British Broadcasting Corporation for – wait for this – fifty-one seconds!

Parts of Nigeria are still experiencing acute fuel shortages. What’s Yar’Adua’s antidote for that? The US recently added Nigeria on the list of nations to watch on matters of terrorism. Pray, how many times has Yar’Adua spoken to President Barack Obama to register his objection? Hundreds of Nigerians have perished in sectarian violence in Bauchi and Jos. What leadership has Yar’Adua provided to calm nerves, to commiserate with the bereaved, or to settle thousands of displaced citizens? Nigerians continue to lose jobs as a fall-out of the nation’s bleak economic climate. What answers has our bed-ridden Yar’Adua offered to arrest or ameliorate the situation?

Turai and Aondoakaa are by no means the exclusive villains in this sordid drama. Last week, I asked a Nigerian senator why they had not moved to impeach Yar’Adua. His confessional response disarmed and shocked in equal measure: a lot of money was being disbursed, he confided. He said that, when legislators raised their voices against Yar’Adua, it was often a ploy to jerk up their fees.

Sooner or later – sooner than later, my hunch tells me – this contemptible game at the expense of Nigerians will run its course.

(okeyndibe@gmail.com)

by Simon Kolawole

Honour has a new admirer. Morality has a new sweat heart. His name is Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Speaking at an event in Abuja on Thursday, Obasanjo released his most direct salvos against President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua since the ex-president honourably imposed the Katsina man as his successor in 2007 via elections that were globally considered to be too low for zero, even by Nigerian standards. Listen to Obasanjo: “If you take up an assignment, a job – elected, appointed, whatever it is – and then your health starts to fail and you will not be able to deliver to satisfy yourself and to satisfy the people you are supposed to serve, then there is a path of honour and the path of morality… and if you don’t do that, then you don’t know anything.”

Reacting to an accusation that he deliberately imposed a “sick man” as President to punish Nigerians for rejecting his third term project, Obasanjo launched into self-defence and self-justification in an unforgettable way, revealing all about the President’s kidney ailment and making every effort to reassure us yet again that everything he did while in office was in the best interest of Nigeria. Hear him again: “When in the year 2006, the idea came up as to succession, I was convinced in my mind that a Southerner succeeding me would not augur well for Nigeria… (by the way, that was a nice message for a predominantly Northern audience). Now, I was looking for [a person] who has three important qualities. One, he has enough intellectual capacity to run the affairs of Nigeria. Two, he has sufficient personal integrity to run the affairs of Nigeria. Three, he is sufficiently broad-minded enough – politically, religiously, socially, whatever to manage the affairs of Nigeria.”

Did you notice the fact that, in Obasanjo’s moral thinking, succession had nothing to do with the choice of the voters? He alone decided it was not good for a Southerner to succeed him; he alone listed the criteria of who would succeed him; and he alone decided who would succeed him – no matter how Nigerians decided to vote. We always said our votes never mattered, and the man of honour has confirmed our suspicion again. He was telling us, in other words, that he had pre-determined presidential election results. He’s an honourable man. He insisted he did not pick Yar’Adua as President so that he would not perform, maintaining: “How can I put so much into this country both in peace and in war and I will begin to run it down? If you have fear of God, you will not make that statement.” Those were the words of Obasanjo, the man who fears God.

Let me tell you something about Obasanjo and honour and morality. He is, typically, trying to extricate himself from the Yar’Adua impasse just to win public applause. When Obasanjo started plotting the third term project in 2004 with his political reform conference, he denied nursing any such ambition. Billions of naira went down the drain at the conference which achieved virtually nothing. As his constitutional term limit drew near in 2006, he adopted every tactic in the book to amend the constitution and get a third term. But he kept denying it. He manipulated the polity, unleashed EFCC on his political opponents and did everything he could to perpetuate himself in power. Lawmakers were being offered (or given) N50 million each to vote for third term. He has now indirectly admitted he did not start thinking of succession until 2006 – after the failure of the third term project. And Obasanjo is an honourable man.

While on a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) campaign tour in 2007, Obasanjo openly said he would send EFCC after Dr. Olusegun Mimiko who was contesting for governorship in Ondo State against his party. Mimiko, on the ticket of the Labour Party, won the election, but INEC denied him his victory until the courts saved him. Adams Oshiomhole’s victory at the Edo polls was initially denied him, no thanks to Obasanjo. Rotimi Amaechi’s candidacy in Rivers State was truncated, no thanks to Obasanjo’s K-leg, although the Supreme Court eventually served justice hot and fresh. Obasanjo plotted and plotted against Dr Chris Ngige as governor of Anambra State to such a ridiculous extent that Ngige was kidnapped by Chris Uba, Obasanjo’s sidekick. Political thugs set the state of fire, burning the Government House in Awka, the state capital.

Obasanjo revealed, in an open letter, that Uba and Ngige were arguing in his presence at Aso Rock. “Uba told Ngige, ‘You know you did not win the election?’ Ngige said, ‘Yes.’ Uba said, ‘Chris, you know Peter Obi won that election? You know what we did to write the results in your favour’,” Obasanjo wrote in a letter to the then chairman of the PDP, Chief Audu Ogbeh. “I then told both of them to get out of my presence.” Obasanjo withdrew Ngige’s security, just to appease Uba, and claimed that Ngige was no longer a governor having resigned under duress. He eventually made Uba a member of the PDP Board of Trustees. He got Ngige expelled from the PDP. Lamidi Adedibu unleashed terror on Ibadan and orchestrated the removal of Rashidi Ladoja as governor of Oyo State for failing to deliver public funds to him. Obasanjo watched in conspiracy and applauded it all. And Obasanjo is an honourable man.

When Obasanjo came to power in 1999, he told us the refineries were not working because Gen. Sani Abacha was awarding fuel import contracts to his cronies and family members. During the entire eight years of Obasanjo, we were still importing fuel. The refineries were still down. Fuel import contracts were in trillions of naira. Who got the import contracts? Abacha’s cronies again? Obasanjo’s regime oversaw one of the most non-transparent eras at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Up till today, every attempt to probe the finances of NNPC has been frustrated.

Even the probe of the power sector, with all the billions of dollars that were pumped into it in Obasanjo’s eight years, has been politically frustrated. And Obasanjo is an honourable man.

He is a clever man, no matter your opinion of him. In the days of President Shehu Shagari, Obasanjo kept quiet until he saw a golden opportunity. When the economy began to crumble under the impact of a global economic meltdown, Obasanjo gauged the mood of the public and unleashed a ferocious attack on Shagari. He was applauded. In the days of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, Obasanjo always carefully chose the moment. Anytime Nigerians were disenchanted with the government, Obasanjo always issued virulent statements to “align” with the people. Obasanjo likes to be seen as a fighter for the masses.

But for the eight years he was in government, he could not tolerate dissenting voices. People who criticised his government were labelled homosexuals, godless and corrupt. Now that he knows that the public mood is against Yar’Adua’s failure to allow Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan act in his absence, Obasanjo has “aligned” with the public again, preaching honour and morality. Good old Obasanjo.

But can Nigerians be deceived? You may say that we should separate the message from the messenger.

That would be a convenient argument. But anybody who knows Obasanjo very well will surely predict that the man is up to some mischief. He, no doubt, wants to extricate himself from the Yar’Adua debacle. He, no doubt, wants to wash off his hands like the Pontius Pilate, two-and-a-half years after imposing Yar’Adua as President. Let’s just hope that this is all there is to Obasanjo’s public statements of last week. Let’s hope he does not have anything up his sleeve again. Remember, Obasanjo is an honourable man.

And Four Other Things…

Maduekwe at it Again

I got a call late into the night on Thursday, but I was fast asleep. It was from a senior colleague of mine. He said he was in distress. “I was watching an interview Foreign Affairs Minister, Chief Ojo Maduekwe, granted the BBC. I was thoroughly distressed,” he said. Thank God I did not watch it. One of Maduekwe’s most memorable answers, I was told, was when he was asked how he had been managing our foreign affairs. The Minister replied: “The important thing is to understand the President’s policies, his vision, his goals and once that is understood, and he believes that this Foreign Minister knows what those visions are… he expects the Foreign Minister to know what to do.” Lord have mercy!

Death on the Plateau

Two weeks ago, I wrote on religious crisis in Nigeria while commenting on the blacklisting of the country by the US. I wrote: “The religious conflicts that we experience in Nigeria are usually sparked off by an incident at a particular point in time, given that the atmosphere is permanently tense and polluted with hate, mistrust and resentment.” I was not surprised at all that the recent clashes between Muslims and Christians in Jos, Plateau State, was caused by a “minor” argument over encroachment on a plot of land. Even a little argument over somebody spitting on the road can spark off an orgy of killings. These tensions are permanently there. A little spark sets the city on fire. And Jos will never have peace until the political leaders stop taking sides. The Fulani always defend the Fulani, the Berom always defend the Berom. No conflict can ever be resolved that way. The time for home truth has come, no matter whose ox is gored.

Better Future ahead?

I was very, very delighted that the election in the Etsako constituency of the Edo House of Assembly held peacefully yesterday. The reports as at last night showed that there was no violence. Six persons were arrested for impersonation, which is not a terrible figure. I am saying all this because I was really afraid there was going to be bloodshed. Both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Action Congress (AC) had been talking tough before the election. The withdrawal of the military Joint Task Force (JTF) from the area was seen as a precursor to the rigging of the election by the PDP. I also got reports that parties had stockpiled arms. That there was no major incident is very encouraging. I wish this would be a sign of good things ahead for the electoral system.

Tenure Tinkering

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has now set the term limit for bank CEOs at a maximum of two five-year terms. I have my reservations on the policy, especially how it caught up with CEOs who had served in different banks and whose previous tenures were to be added together in line with the new policy. I agree totally that nobody should be CEO for life, but I still think there is some deficiency in the policy. I believe it should not have taken effect from dozens of years ago. But if it can be demonstrated that this will help in instilling the principles of corporate governance in the banking industry, we cannot argue against it. Let’s just wait and see.

By Reuben Abati

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s prayer at the Annual Trust Awards that God should punish him if indeed he deliberately chose as his successor a sick man so he would not be able to perform and possibly outshine him, has drawn quite a number of Amens from the public with the outrightly cynical insisting that God is already inflicting punishment on the former President. The reference to God often drives up sentiments among Nigerians and in an overtly religious society such as ours, every appeal to God is intended to have a special effect. It is a psychological fact that pastors rely on so well, and which Obasanjo often deploys in seasons of doubt. It is possible to be emotional in responding to his latest intrusion into the public space. But more benefit could be derived from looking at the facts of the case, and why Obasanjo has chosen now to speak up on the subject of the President’s ill-health, and what message(s) he could possibly be sending across to the public and certain stakeholders. Obasanjo not only ditched President Yar’çdua publicly, he also advised him to resign if his health has failed him. The wily OBJ talked about the path of honour and the path of morality.

In Yar’çdua’s case both are obviously currently conflicted. The Obasanjo that spoke at the Daily Trust event tried to project himself as a patriot who is more interested in national progress. Now that we know where Obasanjo stands in this matter, when next Professor Wole Soyinka, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Femi Falana and others want to embark on another “Enough is Enough. To Save Nigeria” street march, they should remember to invite him along! But is Obasanjo now one of the progressives? Or he is merely playing to the gallery? Or he is trying to absolve himself of blame? Some of his friends have praised him for lending his voice to the calls for Yar’Adua’s resignation.

There is nothing original in him position though. He is waking up to the truth, more than two years late. Is this not the same Obasanjo who only a fortnight ago pointedly refused to comment on the President’s health? If it was not safe for him to pass a comment then, why is it now safe for him to do so? Or was he waiting for the right platform? Telling Yar’çdua to get out at an event in his own backyard, seems a clever way of loading a statement with appropriate weight. Or could it be that Obasanjo already knows something that is not yet public knowledge and which puts him in a safe position to fulminate? For a man who has been to jail and back, simply because he was critical of a sitting Head of State, and who himself does not suffer fools gladly when he wielded power, Obasanjo must be sure that it is only safe to step on a dead cobra’s tail. So what are we dealing with? Opportunism? An attempt at self-ingratiation? Rather than applause, Obasanjo’s statement, arguably his most poignant public statement, since he left office in May 2007 should invite more questions. President Yar’çdua’s ill-health has set an invidious power game in motion and OBJ is trying to get on top of it. But not so fast, sir.

According to the former President, at the time he decided to support President Yar’çdua’s candidacy, he was looking for three qualities: intellectual capacity, integrity and broad-mindedness. In 2007, Candidate Yar’çdua was not the only man in the PDP Presidential race who could boast of these three qualities. That was a fact. Another fact: Obasanjo and his agents had made up their mind that it was Yar’çdua that they wanted. He even told Nigerians at the time that he knew those who would not succeed him. One by one, those who showed interest in the race were arm-twisted, or frightened, out of it. Long before the PDP Presidential primaries, it was common knowledge that both the PDP Presidential ticket and the Presidency had been willed by the man in power to the then Governor of Katsina state.

Yar’çdua was a reluctant candidate, the most reluctant of all the candidates. Obasanjo also wanted Yar’çdua in order to spite Abubakar Atiku, his Vice President with whom he had serious problems. Atiku is a product of the General Shehu Yar’çdua political dynasty, and the leader of the late General’s wing of the PDP; the once powerful People’s Democratic Movement (PDM). In 2002/3, Atiku had made the mistake of boasting that it was he and the PDM machinery that he inherited that brought Obasanjo to power. At the PDP Presidential primaries in 2003, Atiku and his PDM supporters almost humiliated Obasanjo. He was forced to eat the humble pie. What better way to divide and demolish the PDM in 2007, than to hand over power to the junior brother of the founder of the PDM? Handing over power to Yar’çdua was a cold-hearted, Machiavellian move on Obasanjo’s part. With due respect, it had nothing to do with all that rhetoric about intellectual capacity, integrity and broad-mindedness. How much of these three, now presented by OBJ as if they are divine imperatives, did we get from the eight years of the Obasanjo administration?

To all intents and purposes, former President Obasanjo wanted Umaru Yar’çdua as president because that was what would serve his own political interests then. Eye-witnesses to that campaign process will recall that it was President Obasanjo that did most of the campaigning. At several rallies, the man who wanted to be President was not allowed to speak. Obasanjo did all the talking, and subsequently, he would raise Yar’Adua’s hand. At a point, there were comments about the need for Obasanjo to allow the PDP candidate to speak to Nigerians. The first time we heard of the seven-point agenda was on inauguration day! Yar’çdua became President without Nigerians really knowing him. Now, Obasanjo says don’t blame me. He gave me a medical record which said he was in good shape. Obasanjo was Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. A Presidential aspirant gave him a sheet of paper certifying himself fit and he Obasanjo did not deem it necessary to entertain doubts!

The subtext of the Obasanjo comment is that Nigerians not he, made President Yar’çdua president. Nigeria ’s big men are very good at revising history. In the light of available evidence, it seems to me that even if OBJ had full knowledge of the risk factors in making a man who had had a kidney transplant President, he would still have chosen Yar’Adua. If the man was so fit, why was Obasanjo the one selling him to Nigerians, instead of allowing him to do more of the talking? So grateful was the Yar’çdua family after the Presidential elections and the inauguration of Yar’çdua as President that three women from the Yar’çdua household including the brand new President’s mother, and his late brother’s wife went to Ota specially to thank Obasanjo. They did not issue a statement thanking Nigerians. They went to Ota! And now, Obasanjo ditches the same Yar’Adua.

The timing of his latest politics is suspicious but his outburst is understandable. The Atiku threat no longer exists. The PDM is in disarray. Atiku who wanted to replace Obasanjo and in the process became an issue in Nigerian Presidential politics has since gone to Obasanjo’s home to pay homage. All the other candidates, North and South in the PDP who wanted to be President have been driven into their shells, with some of them still battling with the EFCC yoke that was slung around their necks. But Yar’Adua on whose behalf all that effort was made has shown no gratitude to former President Obasanjo. The Yar’Adua government began at the centre with a systematic assault on the Obasanjo legacy. Obasanjo and his spin-doctors used to boast that the dividends of democracy that Nigerians wanted so badly would fructify in the fullness of time on the altar of sustainability.

If they thought Yar’çdua would sustain Obasanjo’s reform agenda and programmes, they made a mistake. These were the first set of pillars that the new government pulled down. Many Obasanjo boys who had worked tirelessly on the Yar’çdua-must-be-President agenda suddenly found themselves being treated as persona non grata. They have been chased out of government, into exile, or into EFCC detention centres. Under Obasanjo, there was something that assumed a political shape called Corporate Nigeria, the jet-riding set that donated money to political causes and strolled into the Presidential Villa at will. They owned the biggest businesses in town and they didn’t hide the fact of their closeness to the President. More than two years later, the Yar’çdua government has successfully castrated this group.

The 24-hour gate passes to Presidential Villa that they used to brandish have been withdrawn! Some of them have lost their banks and are now struggling to stay out of jail. Even those who thought they knew Yar’Adua ( “he was my senior in secondary school”; “I know him”) have all been shocked: if they thought they would prosper politically under him, the man gave them poisoned gifts. Obasanjo himself has not been spared. Yar’çdua and his team have not treated him as the Godfather of the administration. His position as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the PDP has been rendered almost useless. He has been turned into a laughing stock in the company of those he once said would never be President. Ordinary Nigerians may regard President Yar’çdua as a weak leader because of his illness, but his power-politics has been very strong and he may have made great strides in that direction that could affect Nigeria in more fundamental ways than we may realise. But Obasanjo is smart. He is choosing his own time to strike back. But why strike a man when he is weak? Whatever may be Obasanjo’s shortcomings, his voice still carries weight in Nigerian politics. By coming out against Yar’Adua, he will be setting off a chain of reactions that should be closely watched. What will be the Katsina response to the bomb from Ota? And why has Obasanjo suddenly become freshly voluble at the time when Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is said to be taking charge gradually at the Presidency?

It is a game of musical chairs, not yet an end game. Two or three newspapers have suggested that President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua may show up in Nigeria next week, looking healthy and strong enough to carry on. Should that happen, it will be not necessarily a miracle, but a political masterstroke. Some people may have to leave town. For there could be serious reprisals from the Yar’çdua end which may not have demonstrated a capacity to keep promises, but remarkable adroitness in teaching ambitious men and women bitter lessons about the game of power. Even if the man does not return next week, with INEC poised to announce the time-table for the 2011 elections in March, the professional political class will see the need to engage in further mischief.

By Reuben Abati

“HALLELUYAH oh. Somebody shout halle-lu-yah o. Ha-le-ha-le-hale… I praise the Lord o…ha-le. “Somebody, e yin oluwa logo hale…”

“What’s the matter with you?”: You don drink?”

“Yes o. I am drunk with joy. Halle-hale-halle…, “halleluyah, halle…”

“I have been telling you. Take it easy with the bottle. What a man eats is his path to the grave”.

“Hey. Professor. Spare me the lecture. I am not drunk. I am just happy that our missing President has been found. Lost and found President Yar’Adua. Halle lu yah o”.

“The missing President”.

“For over 50 days this country was without a President but now, we have found him. He is alive… He is ali-ve… Yar-Adua is – ali-ve-. A a-men I say: He is – a li-ve. Yar’Adua is ali-ve. Oh, oh, oh, he is alive. A a-men”.

“I am not as enthusiastic as you are”

“A nation that prays, stays together. Obviously, God has answered our prayers… It is good to pray”.

“Are you sure?”

“Oh yes. What do you mean I am sure? The President spoke on BBC. He told Nigerians that he is alive and well, and that as soon as his doctors say he is fit enough, he will return home. In the meantime, he wished the Super Eagles well in the Nations Cup in Angola”.

“He is well. After 50 days! And he doesn’t think he should talk to us through a Nigerian medium. He had to choose the BBC. We have been praying for him and Nigeria, and then, he finds his voice, he thinks the BBC is the best platform. What contempt!”

“A man is ill. He recovers. It doesn’t matter which platform he speaks from. I think we should be happy that the President is alive and that he has been found”.

“Of all things, he had to talk about the Super Eagles and the Nations Cup. Useless Super Eagles and Coach Amodu who if I have my way should be sent to Cabinda. The President didn’t apologise to Nigerians. He didn’t wish us a happy New Year. He didn’t say something to inspire us. In fact, I don’t believe it was him that spoke. I dare say the BBC must be embarrassed conducting such a shoddy interview”.

“Shoddy?”

“Yes. Shoddy. The local media would have done a better job. At least, the reporter could have asked one or two intelligent questions. The BBC using its platform to conduct what was obviously a stage-managed interview does little credit to its own reputation?”

“Hey man. Dogs should not eat dogs. Don’t get carried away.”

“Let us tell the truth and let the devil be ashamed.”

“I see you have been listening to Lagbaja. I know where that line is coming from”.

“You know I don’t even believe that it was President Yar’Adua that spoke to the BBC. The BBC should be careful not to be seen to be part of a conspiracy of deceit. Besides, the President spoke in Hausa language. I object to that Hausa bit. He is President of Nigeria, not President of the Hausa-Fulani”.

“Oh come on. When a man is ill, and he recovers, I don’t care what language comes out of his mouth. In any case, the man also spoke in English”.

“All of this is political”.

“You are a doubting Thomas”.

“Yes. I am. To convince us that the President is alive and well, let his spin doctors put him on NTA Television. With a 3-D scan of the President”.

“Channels, please. Or AIT. I don’t trust NTA”.

“After 50 days of absence, if the President is well enough, we expect him to show up on national television and address all Nigerians. And I don’t expect him to talk about the Super Eagles in Angola. There are more important issues. Is he handing over to his Vice President, for example? Will Goodluck Jonathan now be in charge? Or the country will remain without a leader?”

“The court has settled that, I think”

“The court has not settled anything. If you are talking about the Federal High Court ruling which says the Vice President can take over, I am sorry, it looks like that judgement merely states a principle. It is not executorial. There are no clear-out orders”.

“The Attorney-General of the Federation says there are. The Vice President can now sign anything and act as President”.

“Only in a delegated capacity. The President has not delegated anything to him, so, we are still in the clouds”.

“But a man of courage will hold on to that same ruling and act courageously. The ruling is in one sense about the character of the Vice President. Will he seize the day? Will he step up to the big moment. He has a chance now to stand up. This is all that he needs”.

“You are asking Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to become a suicide bomber? Is that what you are saying?”

“You are speaking in tongues. I don’t get it. I am saying there is a court ruling which offers both Jonathan and all Nigerians a window of opportunity”.

“And I am saying the court ruling has only worsened the situation. Judges should be careful what they say at moments like this”.

“Don’t blame the Judge. The law is a social modulator. The court has ruled. Will Jonathan step forward?”

“My own take is that nothing is that straight-forward in Nigerian politics. Vice President Jonathan will not like to be seen to be ambitious. You know the man is a lucky Deputy. Any man wey the man deputise, something must do am. Alami go jail. Yar’Adua go hospital.”

“That’s mumbo-jumbo. No be Jonathan fault. The matter is simple. Let the President return home. We get hospital for Nigeria too.”

“On doctor’s advice?”

“No. We can no longer wait for that. You know some newspapers have been insisting that the man is clinically dead”.

“But a man that is clinically dead cannot speak Hausa and English on BBC”.

“Suppose it was an actor that spoke…”

“No. It was Yar’Adua”.

“Fine. Let him appear on NTA, then”.

“All of this is just so tiresome. The whole world is laughing at us. How can the President of Nigeria be a missing President?”

“Nothing ever works in Nigeria”.

“At least we now know where our President is. In Haiti, their President is homeless. He now sleeps on the streets. We should thank God here. Now that the President has spoken, naturally every government official would wish to go to Saudi Arabia to greet him. Traditional rulers too”.

“No. That should be discouraged. Whoever wants to see the President should await his arrival. Nobody should turn the President’s ill-health into an opportunity to make quick bucks”.

“Too late. I understand members of the House of Representatives are already on their way to Saudi Arabia. Seven of them. They have all collected their tickets”.

“Jonathan should stop them”.

“The lawmakers claim they are performing their oversight function. They need to go to Saudi Arabia to oversee the President”.

“They shouldn’t bother. The President himself should come home. When Saudi Princes fall sick, they go to America for medical treatment. What is our President doing in Saudi Arabia?”

“No. You are wrong. Why is our President not in a Nigerian hospital. That is the question?”

“He should answer that question himself. And not through BBC. It has to be a Nigerian channel. And in English not Hausa”.

“May be you have a point. English is Nigeria’s official language, not Hausa. The crisis has just begun.”

“Don’t misunderstand me though. I am not saying that this is a North-South debacle. No. That is not my view, I just want the President back home, if that is possible. And I ask: who will come home first- Yar’Adua or the Super Eagles?”

“It is even more than that. If the country continues to drift, what do you think will happen? I am praying for Goodluck Jonathan”

“What?”

“Where do you think all this will lead to?”

“A greater future for Nigeria. I can see God’s hand in it all”.

“No. I don’t see God’s hands. I see failure of leadership. I see selfishness. That is what I see”.

“You probably have a point. Today is January 15″.

“No. No. No. Don’t go that way”.

“What way?”

“What I think you are thinking”.

“I am not even thinking. I am just saying that the only way forward is forward”.

“Better”.

“You should be careful. These are difficult times. Watch what you say. You could step on the wrong toes.”

“Okay I wish the President quick recovery, and all the people that drove the rabbit out of the hole, American Chronicle, London Telegraph and their local conspirators a happy 2010.”

“That your mouth will get you into trouble soon.”

“Wetin I talk now?”

by Sam Nda-Isaiah

Not so surprisingly, the activities of the federal government have ground to a virtual halt. The vice president is not getting involved in certain aspects of governance in spite of all the lies from certain quarters. And this is perfectly understandable. He will not sign any budgets because, technically, he is still the vice president and not the acting president. The ship of state has been abandoned; even the armed forces currently do not have a commander-in-chief. A few people have jocularly said that the Nigerian government has moved to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, but this is not even true as the guy in Jeddah is thinking more about his health and no longer has time for Nigeria.

This doesn’t happen in normal countries but Nigeria is a long stretch from being normal. While all that happened, a certain Mairo Yar’Adua, who was introduced to the public as Umaru’s sister, shouted all of us down a few days ago and warned us to stop lying about her brother. We were lying by saying her brother was ill, she said. He was so well that he could rule Nigeria for another 16 years, she added. She also threatened to drag all of us to court if we didn’t desist from impugning the character of her brother.

Many of us were surprised at this new impudent face from Umaru’s household. Is it not bad enough that we have Turai to contend with? Who the hell is this Mairo? We can now see that, all the while, some family members of the president have been taking Nigeria and Nigerians for a ride. She wants her brother to rule for another 16 years? Is that what the marabouts told them? What happened to PDP’s 60 years? Who told her that her brother was elected in the first place? Are there no senior male members of the president’s family who can call the unruly female members to order? Do they want to drag us to their level of illiteracy?

This confirms what some people have all along been saying: it is not Umaru who really wants to continue in power in spite of the obvious incapacity but other people – both relations and greedy associates – who are illicitly benefiting from his continuous hold on power. This is not what we know of the reputable family of the late Musa Yar’Adua, the powerful First Republic minister of Lagos affairs, and General Shehu Yar’Adua, the very powerful chief of staff, supreme headquarters (1976-1979).

We wish Umaru 16 more years or even 60 years on Planet Earth, but he has finished his tenure as the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria – a tenure that was ill-gotten in the first place. As far as the onerous task of the presidency is concerned, Umaru has become an invalid. He is too sick to be president of a very important country like Nigeria. The job wears down even a healthy person and I don’t know why Umaru accepted to be used by the crooked Obasanjo in the first place.

Of course, even Obasanjo, as shady as he was (and still is), did not factor a Turai much less a Mairo, into his scheming. It is because of people like Umaru that the authors of our constitution constructed Section 144 (i), even though it is very disappointing that they placed the grave responsibility of removing a sick president in the hands of the members of the Federal Executive Council.

Umaru has to go now. If he is conscious enough, he should simply be encouraged to resign. He should be told that, in doing so, he would not be the first Nigerian leader. He would be following in the footsteps of at least two others: General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida resigned as president in 1993 with his now famous “stepping aside” speech. And Ernest Shonekan, his successor, also resigned three months later in November 1993. Of course, as we all know, if both of them had not resigned, they would have been pushed out with ignominy. But they (especially IBB) were smart enough to read the handwriting on the wall.

Therein lies the lesson for Umaru and the reason he must respectfully step aside or resign immediately. The alternative could be disastrous for him, the political class and, of course, the nation.

E A R S H O T

The New Nigerian Must Not Die

Do the governors of the 19 Northern states want the New Nigerian to collapse on their heads? Obasanjo was said to have gladly handed over the newspaper – once the most influential newspaper in the country – to the Northern states because he knew the governors would never be serious enough to salvage it. The last set of governors, of course, proved Obasanjo right. Should we expect same from the current set? The only way the New Nigerian could be salvaged would be through total privatisation. The Northern states should raise equity and then sell their shares to individual blocs spread within their states with very strict provisos on disposal of the shares. The Northern state governments must not keep the shares themselves. Managing one government as master has been bad enough for the New Nigerian. To manage 19 masters would be disastrous.

What the New Nigerian needs at this point is fresh injection of large capital, not from loans but equity. It also needs freedom. It needs capital to get new equipment and strengthen its capacity to compete with circulation and advert sales in the newspaper industry. The New Nigerian needs to make a forceful re-entry into the market and only large capital will make this possible.

But the time for indecision has ended. Any further vacillation on the part of the 19 Northern states on this matter could prove to be the end of the matter for this very important institution

By Bisi Ojediran

Be it IBB’s “stepping aside”, OBJ’s Third-Term attempt, Yar’ Adua’s health, Mamadou Tandja of Niger Republic’s tenure elongation, the decision to stay or leave is never an easy one. The scenarios are the same in the Third World. While some get under pressure to leave, others come under pressure to defy all odds to stay on. Easy perhaps, if it is one man’s decision or if it involves no collateral damage. In very many cases, a major problem is the President’s men.

I learnt about many cases during my research for a book on tenure elongation across Africa. Isolation in the name of protection and paranoia are some of the popular ways of controlling the President, but the forces behind the critical issue of leaving or continuing in power could get really scary. I have tried to string some of the arguments, usually bizarre, in a faction here:

From the outside of the high-rise, only the dim hallway security lights were visible unless you looked really close at the third floor of the four-storey security block. A tiny office at the corner of that floor was illuminated by a small overhead illusory light. This was very unusual meeting considering it was a little past 4:00 AM.

All six of them had been invited an hour before by a former military General believed to be one of the President’s fiercest loyalists who knew the secrets of all the President’s men.

Sim, had gained enormous wealth and power representing the interests of big politicians. From the days of the military governments, he had survived the many changes in government to remain ensconced in that nation’s corridors of power.

That had earned him juicy contracts, through which he’d built up the foreign reserves of his benefactors. In turn, their collective guilt and gratitude insulated him from the negative effects of whatever power games his sponsors played.

For a man who had the power to pull down the house on his benefactors, he also knew there was only one way to silence or punish him: Death! So in addition to ensuring he was trusted by the President, he was very careful of others.

For this meeting he made all six people to swear to an oath before entering the meeting room where only distorted shapes of people could be seen in the red illusory light. After the oath, each person had been assigned a number, and was to be called by that number only. They were three key ministers, a top security operative, chief strategy adviser and a member of the President’s family. They used microphones which had the effect of distorting their voices to make identification impossible.

“I am Five,” the meeting opened. “I had thought that in his current state of shock, the President would be convinced some people want him out of power for selfish reasons.”

“Hmm!” a heavy chorus interrupted him.

“ I followed that with the argument of how his achievements will be rubbished and the loss his departure will cost the country. I have argued my points strongly to him and I believe others here have.”

“Yes, I did. I’m One.” Sim made sure he attended the meeting, and from where he sat in the adjoining office monitoring, he was sure One would speak his mind. He was one of the masterminds of the agenda to convince the President to stay on.

This early morning, he chewed a kola nut to stay alert. “I have told him to ignore the noise of the opposition in the media and rather to listen to the silent voices of the majority of the people who love his sincerity and his fear of God.”

“That was a good one,” someone said, drawing sighs from some others.

One continued: “I have told him that although some foreign countries want him to leave at the end of his tenure or even before then, there are others who want him to stay on for the country to realise the full potentials of its mineral resources….”

A shrilling laughter cut in, and then, “don’t mind the Americans. Is Egypt not their ally? Do they think the system of government there is a democracy?” Someone said, “Please continue,” he added.

“Thank you,” One took over. “You see, he seemed to agree with me when I said his administration has moved the country forward in ways that were considered unthinkable. He also agreed that although presidents seem to get elected properly, they afterwards act like they’ve been awarded the job. It happens quite too often around the world.”

“I’m Three,” another muffled voice took over. “I came off with a different view when I spoke with Mr. President. He seems determined to leave as soon as possible. He told me he is not as vibrant as before and anybody wishing him to stay longer than necessary may be wasting his or her time. On that night he looked tired.”

“Liar!” An angry participant shouted.

“Let’s keep our calm, gentlemen,” someone said after a loud silence. “Three, please continue.”

“Thanks,” Three resumed his contribution. “We all know the President is a very principled man. He said he is aware that there are committees and ministries in the administration that are in the middle of some important projects. That, he knows they are concerned they will be unable to complete those tasks before a new president takes office.”

“Of course, everyone knows that every new president will bring in as many of his own people as possible. The next leader will not want any leftover, even if they are at the peak of their performance. Sorry, I didn’t introduce myself. I am Two.”

He paused and continued. “They talk about continuity in government, but practically, a new man means that we are all out of the power equation. The realignment of forces means that we become ordinary members of the country, and the truth is that I don’t know anybody here who has made enough money to live on forever.”

A heavy silence fell on the meeting.

There was a disgruntled sigh then someone spoke, “and of course, there are people here who have their eyes on higher political office. All that dream will die prematurely.”

“This is Three. The last speaker did not identify his number, but let me finish what I was saying. I was reminding us of my impression that deep inside him, the President has the country at heart. He said he has planted the vegetables and once he is gone, a new farmer will have to tend the garden.”

Sim, had been anxious to hear from the President’s cousin, who was sure to speak for the President’s wife. He spoke at last: “I’m Six. Gentlemen, of course we all understand why we want the President to continue. It may be of selfish interest but that is the practical thing everybody will wish…”

“That is very correct, I’m Two. We have to be realistic.”

“Thank you,” Six continued. “As concerned family members, some of us, and I must add that it is not all of us, some of us have been prevailing on him to stay, but he is a very stubborn man, you know? He keeps his key decisions quiet and once they have been made, nobody changes his mind.”

He stopped at the shuffling of feet of some nervous participants and continued. “The way we handle him is that once we suspect he has an unfavourable decision, we don’t give him the opportunity to verbalise it,” he paused to swallow.

“The truth is that you people in government surprise me. If you need the President this much, by now you should have built a strong and loud army of sycophants and praise singers all over the place. And his information and communication people should be feeding the media and the public with why he wants to stay on to finish his programmes. Stuffs like that.”

Four spoke at last to the delight of Sim: “I’m Four. I agree with the last speaker. We also told him we have security reports on the extravagant lifestyles and sinister motives of the people who would possibly succeed him and I think he is beginning to understand that all his achievements would be squandered within months of his vacation from office. He has also been made to believe why some people want him dead and all that seems to scare him. He was beginning to worry that the country will be in flames by the time he leaves…”

“Aha!” Someone said in satisfaction. “I think we should continue along that line, pumping fear into him and making him feel larger than life. If he loves the country as someone said, then he should be concerned that his departure will set the country on fire. Sorry, I’m Two,” he apologised for not identifying himself.

“Yea,” the others chorused.

But Three held a different view. He said, “gentlemen let’s not waste our time. We may not be opportune to see all the pressure and pain he is going through, but if you ask me, the President will leave at the next opportunity….”

“Shut up!”, “Nonsense!”, “Idiot!” a hail of insults and banging of the table drowned him.

Suddenly, a voice came on the speaker, “gentlemen the popular position is that we continue to try until Mr. President speaks for himself. For now Four, as the most senior person, will implement all the action items.” That was Sim.

by Sam Omatseye

Death skulked all of us as though we were reptiles wild-eyed in the dark. We wanted to pounce. We craved blood. Some wanted the terminal face of Yar’Adua on newspaper front pages, heralding a mournful nation, or a nation in quiet joy over the passing of quiescent president.

It came as a rumour. The grill sizzled with whispers of analysis and rumbles of scenarios. Some of the analysts hissed with apocalyptic visions of Nigeria.

What was clearly lacking in all this was a collective humanity. Where was our human recoil from the spectre of death? Is it not somebody’s life we are talking about? Someone, ailing like anyone in our families? Someone breathing, with a sense of touch, taste, smell, sight? A living being buffeted by the inevitability of human frailties?

Yet as one contemplates this burst of savagery, we are not unmindful of the bungling of his handlers, their own share of insensitivity to the general public. If they did well at the beginning to tell us he travelled out for medical treatment, they failed by letting it all stop there.

In their silence, they gave birth to a rash of opinions as facts. Rumours fester in the ambience of absences. In this case, the absence of facts.

Goodluck Jonathan, a Vice President with a limp heart calling for a psychological surgery, acted as though not aware of the urgency of things. His handlers allowed all of us to wallow in ignorance.

So, it was a case of official insensitivity meeting with a civil death wish. A fatal collision.

Whatever is clear, Yar’Adua ought to learn something from all that has transpired. One, he should know that his love among Nigerians are not so deep. If he won the 2007 elections, he should have more love than we have seen in these past days. Or maybe, the love has diminished. If it is the latter, it shows that he has not translated that electoral goodwill to food, shelter, education and power to the people.

This is a far cry from the case of the Brazilian President Tancredo Neves who decades ago took seriously ill during a presidential election just like Yar’Adua. He said if he got enough votes to win, not even God would stop him from serving as president of Brazil. He did win, but the illness aggravated.

The whole of Brazil soared into a mammoth prayer session. Everyone invoked heaven. But Neves, in spite of his irreverence, could not survive the depredation of an illness. He died.

We have not seen much of this for Yar’Adua except symbolic calls from a secular and sometimes cynical elite.

What we have seen in this moment of his health travail unveils his presidency so far. There has been a manic lack of information. He is a taciturn leader who does not have actions to speak for him. His information managers too are left with little to work with.

He has a minister of information who is more interested in her photos on the pages of newspapers parroting her official garrulity. This empty cymbal of a woman got away with that as NAFDAC czar. Not now when she is perpetually exposed.

Times of illness betray our friends and enemies. It reminds us who wants us dead and those who care little for us. But the case of a president is not that easy to define. A group of many prominent Nigerians called for the man to resign, and it is easy to conclude that these men want him dead anyway. Some of them may. Some of them may believe that it is the case of one man whose infirmity is standing in the way of the sustenance and progress of millions of human beings. You cannot blame them for their concern. But it was surely candour carried too far to call for a man to resign while still writhing on sick bed.

It all boils down to a lack of communication. President John F. Kennedy took a cocktail of drugs while in office. He had so much charm and brought elan and pride to office as senator and president of the United States that the people did not worry too much about his infirmity as the “leader of the free world.”

Which tells us that Yar’Adua does not have the charm factor. You need it, if not in personal magnetism, but at least in action and communication. JFK had plenty of charisma, perhaps the best in the country’s history. They forgave his illness the same way they forgave his philandering.

No one in Guinea, I believe, will pray for the Guinean butcher, Moussa Dadis Camara, on Moroccan sick bed today. In his bloodlust, he would not apologise for the rapes and killings of innocents.

Josip Broz Tito, the last leader of charisma of old Yugoslavia, fell ill. The people pined for him to live. Even in Nigeria, we followed the progress of this man in hospital. His illness was in his leg. Disease was eating it away. Doctors had to amputate it. The announcement was made in public even before then. He never survived. Our tears followed him to his grave.

Empathy followed him because, in the words of poet G. Pole, he did “bear brash witness and prepared the path for change.” Even though it was not the change we wanted. Bloodbath and division destroyed what he built.

Here at home, IBB had radiculopathy. The military president who suffocated free speech did not hide his ailment. It brought a peculiar softness to a ruthless dictator.

When Reagan was shot by Lee Harvey Oswald, the media kept the world updated on his state of health. Reagan turned it into humour when he told his wife, “Honey, I forgot to duck.”

Franklin Roosevelt hid his polio from public face when it was still in fashion to preserve the mysticism of the presidency. But many knew about it. The media saw it, but they would not take his photo from his waist down. If he was a bumbler in office, it is hard to imagine that his political rivals would not have made a capital out of this.

History has abundance of cases, including the four-day anticipation of the death of Stalin after his interior minister poisoned him. Half his body was paralysed just as Herod’s half-body rotted away. He saw worms roil in his flesh as he faded.

What is important is not what afflicts Yar’Adua. It is what he is inflicting on us in the shabby way he handles this matter. He forces everyone to ask an important question. If we can live with this in all of his first term, does it make sense for him to contemplate another? Not in my book.

By Dale Sobowale

A living dog is better than a dead lion”.—Chinese proverb.

PRESCRIPT. Forgive me for repeating this statement two weeks in a row. But, it is important because, never mind what the politicians say, this is a matter of life and death of an individual who happens to be our president. It would have been a different matter if it was a totally family affair. This is a global drama; a leaderless nation; playing itself out. —Dele.

THE VP cannot do it (i.e provide the presidential leadership) as we have pointed out earlier. Even if he is the most spell-binding speaker, he is not the president. The SGF or Senate president can only support the helmsman in this crusade.

Yet, the president is unavailable and the economy he left on its knees might be flat on its back by the time he returns.

That will not only increase the stress on him personally, it will heat up the polity considerably. Consequently, he might soon be back in (now Saudi) or wherever he is. As it is two entities are seriously endangered – the president and Nigeria.

Let me at this point admit some of the constraints you and the president have. His selection and emergence as president have elevated some people into positions of prominence which will be lost if he steps aside. He is also keenly aware of the constitutional provisions stipulating that the vice president should take over if he resigns his office. Since the office of president was zoned to the North in 2007 that would mean that power will rotate back to the South in less than four or even eight years.

The potential political backlash that might result from that is sufficient to make the president feel that he has been nailed to the cross and cannot step down without incurring the contempt or wrath of his people. Such considerations if they form part of the reasons why he is holding on, even at the risk of life, would stamp him as a noble man with a martyr complex.

It is admirable but pathetic because if he ruins his health and cannot continue the palaver will occur all the same. Why not “step aside,” to borrow the words of another failure, and let Nigeria march to her destiny? Perhaps his departure might even help us to undo the harm done by his selection by a cynical former president.

As for those who have been elevated or hope to be promoted by a Yar’Adua presidency, and who he feels obligated to defend, even at great risk to himself, he only needs to be reminded of the words of Bernard Malamud in The Fixer.

According to Malamud, “In a sick country all the efforts aimed at curing its sickness is opposed by people who feed from its sickness.” Those who want him to hold the “Nigerian cow”so they can milk it will simply go and look for another benefactor if he croaks. Vultures don’t care who dies as long as they have carrion to feed upon.

That leads to the question of who can tell the president the truth and perhaps make him face up to the inevitable, namely, that he has developed diminishing physical capacity to preside. First, let me eliminate those who cannot. The constitution provides that the Federal Executive Council can declare the president unfit for office. That is laughable under the circumstances. Who among the ministers or the chief of staff or the SGF will move the motion? So, that is out.

His special advisers are also not candidates for this assignment. Forget the National Assembly or the National Working Committee of the PDP. Ogbulafor might not be very bright, especially when he talks about PDP ruling for 60 years, but he is not crazy – at least not yet. He knows that any such suggestion from the NWC would amount to political suicide if not actual voluntary self-euthanasia. So they are out too.

Then, who can “bell the cat”- to use an old expression. That leaves two candidates. First are those like me who have never asked for and will never ask your husband for anything and who believe that he must be told the truth – no matter the consequences. The second is you.

Madam, I know you love your husband and that you would rather have a live ex-president to cuddle for more years than a fading memory of something six feet under. In fact nobody else is perfect for the job. Therefore, in the name of all that is good, let me ask that you to please perform the most difficult task of your life fully in the knowledge that you have done the best for Nigeria, for the president and for posterity.

When the president returns from this trip, from Saudi or wherever that may be, get him on a presidential aircraft. Then, ask the pilot to fly to Katsina. Take our president home and help him to draft a resignation letter. You can come for the luggage later.

Thereafter you can proceed to nurse him to old age. You are probably asking the reason for all these. It is very simple really. The man never wanted to be president. That is why till today people like Oghene continue to ask for a blueprint (for development) that would never materialize. Those who genuinely want to be president don’t wait until after the election to develop one.

They go on the campaign hustling with their blueprint for governance in hand.

Unlike Obama, and perhaps Attah Mills, Yar’Adua did not campaign. First of all he was handpicked by a vindictive leader who decided to us pay us back for refusing him the third term.

And what they called campaigning was no more than a bunch of old comedians called “Garrison commanders” making fools of themselves on stage after stage.

Only as an after-thought was Umoru pulled up to have his hand raised and to shout “VeeDVee Vower to the veovle”. The man had no blue print and he promised us nothing.

It is really not his fault that he does not know how to govern. And on top of that he had not the slightest idea about the demands the job would make on his health. It is doubtful if he can continue to stand the strain. Granted, no man likes to admit failure on a great enterprise.

But, must stubbornness lead to a casualty – especially if it can be averted? Please, Madam, when Ogapatapata returns, take him home to Katsina and let the vultures fight over the spoils he will leave behind.

By Dele Momodu

As I write this piece, Nigeria is still without a functioning President. The regularity of our President’s disappearing acts reminds me of Ola Rotimi’s play, Our Husband Has Gone Mad Again. In this case, it is our country that has actually gone a bit neurotic. Or how can one explain the fact that some Nigerians are afraid of discussing the state of our President’s health, and by extension the state of our dear nation, as if it’s some sort of heresy. Since our President became invisible to radar detection, no one has been able to explain why a critically-ill President would continue to keep the keys of Aso Rock in far-away Saudi Arabia.

Our ever-loyal Vice President has been left in a state of stupor. I watched him on television the other day, as he struggled to act the part of a man in control of nothing. Some visitors were in his residence to pay homage to him during the Eid kabir festival. He was dressed in an all white outfit with a white cap to match. Gone was his traditional Niger Delta cap.

We did not know in what capacity he received the Moslems; as an Acting President, or what? I saw a man with a heavy burden on his shoulder. Here was someone who was supposed to be a co-pilot but unfortunately was saddled with the task of operating only on cruise control. He’s never been allowed to use his initiative or skills. It must be very frustrating.

Meanwhile, our nation continues to haemorrhage away. Everyone is calling for prayers, as if we’ve not been praying and fasting enough. The situation should never be this bad.

Everything has gone quiet in the seat of power. Nothing is moving. But everyone has been involved in one permutation or the other, from the sublime to the supine. In all of this, we don’t know what tomorrow holds for our beleaguered country.

I had cause to call my dear brother, Simon Kolawole, last Sunday. I had just read his article as usual, and was worried that his main message could have been missed by casual readers.

I was particularly concerned about the issue of rotation or zoning, or whatever it is called. Why should anyone debate what happens if the President does not recover soon from his illness? The answer should be as clear as pure water.

The Constitution of Nigeria states very clearly that the Vice President must take over power. It is not negotiable.

Rotation or zoning cannot apply here. Rotation or zoning are not recognised by our law. That was the first question I asked Simon Kolawole when he returned my call: Is rotation of the Presidency enshrined in our Constitution? We both agreed the answer is No.

There should be no debate about who should even be in charge right now. But ours is a nation of hypocrites where everyone pretends to love whoever is in power. No one is asking the Vice President to steer the wheel of State in full throttle.

Even if it has been said that no one pressurised him into resigning, we are still very worried that after all we went through during the June 12, 1993, presidential election debacle, some Nigerians can still dream of annulling the verdict of our Constitution.

The Yar ‘Adua family would sooner or later see the true colours and character of these politicians who are saying there is no vacancy in Aso Rock. We’ve seen it all before. It is all about cash and power. It is never about service to the people. It is never about loving the President. They would soon shift their allegiance to someone else, without any qualms.

I always wonder how they do it. Their present excuse is how the North would like to complete its term, whatever that means. No one is telling us under what section of our Constitution this has been written.

They have conveniently forgotten that when General Murtala Mohammed was murdered on the street of Lagos, the man who took over was the one and only Olusegun Aremu Obasanjo. Beyond that, for the purposes of history, it must be noted that Obasanjo handed over to President Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari, a teacher from Sokoto. When Shagari was booted out of office, the man who took the baton of power was no other than Generals Mohammadu Buhari and Babatunde Idiagbon, who were both Northerners.

They were soon booted out by General Ibrahim Babangida, a Northerner. When Babangida stepped aside in 1993, he handed over power to a weak government that was led by Chief Ernest Degunle Shonekan, who was soon kicked out by General Sani Abacha, a Northerner. When Sani Abacha suddenly died, under mysterious circumstances, it was General Abdusalami Abubakar who took over, a Northerner.

No Igbo man, or Niger Delta man, was ever considered for the number one slot. What rotation are we talking about under this lopsided arrangement? I have no problem with a Northerner or Southerner ruling perpetually if Nigerians have something positive to gain from it. We should all be happy that one day an Igboman or Niger Delta man would govern this great country.

As for me and my house, it does not matter who governs Nigeria. What we need are responsible human beings who can move us forward. We must put an end to the primordial sentiments that keep us down. Only the profiteers continue to insist on rotation and zoning. Without it, they’ll be like fish out of water.

What have we benefitted from zoning and rotation? Nothing really if we examine it. The city of Kano has produced two Heads of State, Generals Murtala Mohammed and Sani Abacha. Has Kano transformed into a Dubai or Doha? Minna has produced two Presidents, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Abubakar.

Has Minna become a Honolulu or Hong kong? Abeokuta has produced General Obasanjo and Chief Shonekan, and a President-in-waiting, Chief Moshood Abiola. Has it turned Abeokuta into a Sun City or Shanghai? Why do people really worry about where the President and other men of power come from? Even when our kinsmen get to power, they often forget those who voted or rigged them into power. Educated Nigerians most times turn into stark illiterates on account of ethnic sentiments. I always wonder why we are ready to sacrifice the progress of Nigeria for the sake of zoning and rotation.

All patriotic Nigerians must rise up and fight against this collective stupidity. We must insist on merit and merit only. We need energetic and forward-looking leaders, and they abound here. The problem is we have not been bold enough to stand together and challenge the status quo. Our leaders too have been too timid about changing anything because they were products of the useless system.

I’m sure there is a reason and purpose for the Constitutional challenges we are about to experience with Yar ‘Adua’s absence from Abuja. Nigeria is not likely to remain the same after we would have sorted ourselves out one way or the other. The health of one man has become the only issue on all lips. We have virtually forgotten our many woes. The Federal Government has abdicated its responsibilities to Nigerians. Last week, I drove from Port Harcourt to Yenagoa. I could not believe how bad the road was. The experience finally convinced me that PDP cannot redeem Nigeria, if after ten years no city has benefitted anything from its rule. It is such a shame.

All Federal roads have packed up. The airports are ugly and disgraceful. The ruling government has demonstrated a total lack of vision and ambition. This is evident in every aspect of our daily life. How can any government ignore the Benin-Ore, and Lagos-Ibadan roads? Ibadan-Ife road has become a death trap. Ile-Ife Akure road has failed. Akure-Abuja road is shameful. All roads in Nigeria are practically useless. What has zoning got to do with anything?

There are incompetent people everywhere, and they are the ones we tend to recycle. Why can’t we begin to zone power to great people? I won’t mind a Katsina man ruling for as long as it takes if he’s very good. I’ll support a man from Ibesikpo in Akwa-Ibom, if I’m convinced he can do the job of rescuing Nigerians from poverty, hunger, joblessness, unemployment, diseases, and general backwardness. That is how it is in the game of football. We care less where our strikers come from when we are playing the game of soccer. The most important thing is for our team to keep scoring. I always wonder why we haven’t learnt any useful lessons from the game of football.

And talking of football, the World Cup draws took place last night in South Africa. I have had to delay this piece to be able to reflect on the mood at the epochal event. There are lessons for Nigeria. Did you see Jacob and Joseph, I mean Zuma and Blatter, as they walked proudly onto the world stage? Did you notice the charisma of both world leaders? Did you realise there were no overzealous security aides and sycophants falling over themselves in front or behind the South African President? The man was at peace with the world and I was so touched by what I saw. The event ran smoothly. Everyone wore serious looks. We did not see big men and women disturbing the peace of other people. They did not fight for seats not allocated to them. There was no Federal character in the choice of music and musicians. The venue of the event was spectacular. There is not a venue to host such an event anywhere in Nigeria. The event was executed with clinical precision.

The level of preparation in South Africa is awesome. Most cities are wearing new and heavenly looks. The infrastructure has been upgraded. We have not read that contractors ran away with the monies meant for the development of a whole nation. There are Nigerians who can make things happen. They can even do better. But it won’t happen, until we begin to allow our best brains to function without all the nonsense about zoning and rotation.

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